US Moves towards G-2 and relegates India to a lower position in Geo-politics

http://www.ekathimerini.com/4dcgi/_w_articles_wsite3_1_24/09/2014_543168

US is not doing anything. The economic and milatary power decides the equations. Each country will push for set up favorable to its interests. India should focus n building its economy and improve it peoples lives. May be after another 30 years, it will have sufficient influence to demand a seat at the table.

truthbetold wrote:US is not doing anything. The economic and milatary power decides the equations.  Each country will push for set up favorable to its interests. India should focus n building its economy and improve it peoples lives. May be after another 30 years,  it will have sufficient influence to demand a seat at the table.

I agree! However, we also have to understand that in an interconnected world, perception brings in new business and opportunities, and China's current policy of treating India as the main rival in Asia, directly threatens India's rise. US was the only power that could keep it in check. 

For example, leaving aside security issues, these kind of things, matter when ASEAN +3 or ASEAN+6 grouping is decided OR when multi-lateral free trade area is formed. All these bring opportunities, and when sovereign funds invest in countries, they look for the relative weight of a country in a geo-political sense.

This article basically says that the US is throwing in the towel as far as competition with China is concerned. The worry really is what China will do, with unbridled power in Asia. The Chinese have proved themselves to be exceedingly greedy and  are known to be a bully. They are single mindedly pursuing wealth for their people, and going to great extent for that, including plunder of natural resources in other countries, and also block other powers from developing. In their quest for great power status, they are willing to prevent other powers from developing and kill competition. It is this part of Chinese policy that becomes a big issue for India. This is the greatest threat to India growth story.

Part of their behaviour until now against India, was also because of historical baggage regarding sanctuary to Tibetans etc.. But even after that issue went away, the Chinese are desperate in ensuring that India does NOT develop, because they know India can become their direct rival in competing for economic growth.

Their overall thinking  can be seen, when out of the blue they launch a "Made in China" campaign, when they see a credible "Make in India" campaign from India. There is no need for this campaign, the world has been manufacturing in China for almost two decades now. Until now, the western companies had no real alternative, and they used to acquiesce to all kind of bullying from China , and used to manufacture there, despite piracy, plagiarism in technology space, blatant disregard for IPR, and arm-twisting to transfer technology to Chinese companies. 
 
In this sense the Chinese are somewhat like imperial Britain, but now in a modern avatar, where they do this by buying the top leadership of pliant governments.  In short when it comes to economic opportunities, China is a "Thug". They do not play fair. They are like that lead footballer who will trip the other person just to win.

The economic fight with China is not going to be easy. Chinese will match every single offer that India makes, to keep western companies from channeling new investments into India rather than China. The western companies could  also leverage a considerably strong India to get better deals from China, rather than truly investing in India, because it is the incumbent and has shown that it works.


So we can see that, a developing India that competes for FDI with China, presents two challenges for China, a) they have to sweeten deals for western companies to stay in China b) they cannot bully them anymore to transfer technology.

Effectively a rising India weakens Chinese negotiating position with western companies.

Make no mistake, while being goody -goody with India and even investing in a few places to show good intent, they will unchain their attack dog "Pakistan" to create security trouble for India and deter foreign investment. India has to be on guard. India also needs to figure out a way to convince "Indian Muslims" the benefit of economic development, and police themselves to not allow Political Islamists and saboteurs from Pakistan.

The solution is for India to tackle the issue head on, and try to convince China, that a growing India can also benefit China. If NM led India can somehow mellow down China and convince their leadership of the benefits of a growing India, then this would be greatest triumph of any Indian leader.  But to get there, initially a poor India needs considerable support to even show that they can grow. Political support from western governments that gives green signal to their companies, to invest in India (despite hurdles), can help tilt the scales. Here looks like the US government is not going to help that much and I hope NM tries to convince the Obama administration otherwise. May be Europe will. We don't know. Japan has already started.  This will one of the biggest challenges for  NM. Obtain help of cash rich western companies and pro-active support from western governments to develop India, and convince China that a rising India while causing China to lose some deals, can on the long run also benefit Chinese growth.

Also, India should play the china game...Dangling the huge Indian market to extract, bully, cajole western companies. India has several private sector multi-nationals that the foreign companies can collaborate than develop joint ventures with chinese govt. entities. In short, the Western companies will look at market, money, and movement of capital. The whities and Japs are very smart when it comes to these three.

rawemotions wrote:

truthbetold wrote:US is not doing anything. The economic and milatary power decides the equations.  Each country will push for set up favorable to its interests. India should focus n building its economy and improve it peoples lives. May be after another 30 years,  it will have sufficient influence to demand a seat at the table.

I agree! However, we also have to understand that in an interconnected world, perception brings in new business and opportunities, and China's current policy of treating India as the main rival in Asia, directly threatens India's rise. US was the only power that could keep it in check. 

For example, leaving aside security issues, these kind of things, matter when ASEAN +3 or ASEAN+6 grouping is decided OR when multi-lateral free trade area is formed. All these bring opportunities, and when sovereign funds invest in countries, they look for the relative weight of a country in a geo-political sense.

This article basically says that the US is throwing in the towel as far as competition with China is concerned. The worry really is what China will do, with unbridled power in Asia. The Chinese have proved themselves to be exceedingly greedy and  are known to be a bully. They are single mindedly pursuing wealth for their people, and going to great extent for that, including plunder of natural resources in other countries, and also block other powers from developing. In their quest for great power status, they are willing to prevent other powers from developing and kill competition. It is this part of Chinese policy that becomes a big issue for India. This is the greatest threat to India growth story.

Part of their behaviour until now against India, was also because of historical baggage regarding sanctuary to Tibetans etc.. But even after that issue went away, the Chinese are desperate in ensuring that India does NOT develop, because they know India can become their direct rival in competing for economic growth.

Their overall thinking  can be seen, when out of the blue they launch a "Made in China" campaign, when they see a credible "Make in India" campaign from India. There is no need for this campaign, the world has been manufacturing in China for almost two decades now. Until now, the western companies had no real alternative, and they used to acquiesce to all kind of bullying from China , and used to manufacture there, despite piracy, plagiarism in technology space, blatant disregard for IPR, and arm-twisting to transfer technology to Chinese companies. 
 
In this sense the Chinese are somewhat like imperial Britain, but now in a modern avatar, where they do this by buying the top leadership of pliant governments.  In short when it comes to economic opportunities, China is a "Thug". They do not play fair. They are like that lead footballer who will trip the other person just to win.

The economic fight with China is not going to be easy. Chinese will match every single offer that India makes, to keep western companies from channeling new investments into India rather than China. The western companies could  also leverage a considerably strong India to get better deals from China, rather than truly investing in India, because it is the incumbent and has shown that it works.


So we can see that, a developing India that competes for FDI with China, presents two challenges for China, a) they have to sweeten deals for western companies to stay in China b) they cannot bully them anymore to transfer technology.

Effectively a rising India weakens Chinese negotiating position with western companies.

Make no mistake, while being goody -goody with India and even investing in a few places to show good intent, they will unchain their attack dog "Pakistan" to create security trouble for India and deter foreign investment. India has to be on guard. India also needs to figure out a way to convince "Indian Muslims" the benefit of economic development, and police themselves to not allow Political Islamists and saboteurs from Pakistan.

The solution is for India to tackle the issue head on, and try to convince China, that a growing India can also benefit China. If NM led India can somehow mellow down China and convince their leadership of the benefits of a growing India, then this would be greatest triumph of any Indian leader.  But to get there, initially a poor India needs considerable support to even show that they can grow. Political support from western governments that gives green signal to their companies, to invest in India (despite hurdles), can help tilt the scales. Here looks like the US government is not going to help that much and I hope NM tries to convince the Obama administration otherwise. May be Europe will. We don't know. Japan has already started.  This will one of the biggest challenges for  NM. Obtain help of cash rich western companies and pro-active support from western governments to develop India, and convince China that a rising India while causing China to lose some deals, can on the long run also benefit Chinese growth.

>>>>I think India is  shrewd enough insofar as not trusting China. The "Hindi-Cheeni bhai-bhai" is hopefully a relic of the naïve past. That goes for economics as well as geopolitics vis-à-vis Pakistan. India's best bet is to play both sides, but align itself with the West for synergies. Kissinger's thesis is correct on the US/China bi-polar world and it is a redux of the erstwhile US/USSR scenario. The difference now is that the US has a weaker hand, with technology and information flow having flattened the world. The US saw the China story coming even a couple of decades ago and hence the warming up to India. I agree with you that for concrete results there need to be tangible investments of a much higher magnitude from the western business sector. I am not that optimistic about China not playing dirty or seeing the benefit of a developed India. Theirs is a self-absorbed mindset of just looking out for number one. The one silver lining here maybe that economic growth by central diktat (even loosening ones) hits roadblocks in fairly short order. So China may indeed be forced to look to India to sustain its own growth to some extent. Nevertheless, Modi has a tricky road to navigate on this front. It could be worse i.e . Rahul Gandhi could have been in power:)

rawemotions wrote:

truthbetold wrote:US is not doing anything. The economic and milatary power decides the equations.  Each country will push for set up favorable to its interests. India should focus n building its economy and improve it peoples lives. May be after another 30 years,  it will have sufficient influence to demand a seat at the table.

I agree! However, we also have to understand that in an interconnected world, perception brings in new business and opportunities, and China's current policy of treating India as the main rival in Asia, directly threatens India's rise. US was the only power that could keep it in check. 

For example, leaving aside security issues, these kind of things, matter when ASEAN +3 or ASEAN+6 grouping is decided OR when multi-lateral free trade area is formed. All these bring opportunities, and when sovereign funds invest in countries, they look for the relative weight of a country in a geo-political sense.

This article basically says that the US is throwing in the towel as far as competition with China is concerned. The worry really is what China will do, with unbridled power in Asia. The Chinese have proved themselves to be exceedingly greedy and  are known to be a bully. They are single mindedly pursuing wealth for their people, and going to great extent for that, including plunder of natural resources in other countries, and also block other powers from developing. In their quest for great power status, they are willing to prevent other powers from developing and kill competition. It is this part of Chinese policy that becomes a big issue for India. This is the greatest threat to India growth story.

Part of their behaviour until now against India, was also because of historical baggage regarding sanctuary to Tibetans etc.. But even after that issue went away, the Chinese are desperate in ensuring that India does NOT develop, because they know India can become their direct rival in competing for economic growth.

Their overall thinking  can be seen, when out of the blue they launch a "Made in China" campaign, when they see a credible "Make in India" campaign from India. There is no need for this campaign, the world has been manufacturing in China for almost two decades now. Until now, the western companies had no real alternative, and they used to acquiesce to all kind of bullying from China , and used to manufacture there, despite piracy, plagiarism in technology space, blatant disregard for IPR, and arm-twisting to transfer technology to Chinese companies. 
 
In this sense the Chinese are somewhat like imperial Britain, but now in a modern avatar, where they do this by buying the top leadership of pliant governments.  In short when it comes to economic opportunities, China is a "Thug". They do not play fair. They are like that lead footballer who will trip the other person just to win.

The economic fight with China is not going to be easy. Chinese will match every single offer that India makes, to keep western companies from channeling new investments into India rather than China. The western companies could  also leverage a considerably strong India to get better deals from China, rather than truly investing in India, because it is the incumbent and has shown that it works.


So we can see that, a developing India that competes for FDI with China, presents two challenges for China, a) they have to sweeten deals for western companies to stay in China b) they cannot bully them anymore to transfer technology.

Effectively a rising India weakens Chinese negotiating position with western companies.

Make no mistake, while being goody -goody with India and even investing in a few places to show good intent, they will unchain their attack dog "Pakistan" to create security trouble for India and deter foreign investment. India has to be on guard. India also needs to figure out a way to convince "Indian Muslims" the benefit of economic development, and police themselves to not allow Political Islamists and saboteurs from Pakistan.

The solution is for India to tackle the issue head on, and try to convince China, that a growing India can also benefit China. If NM led India can somehow mellow down China and convince their leadership of the benefits of a growing India, then this would be greatest triumph of any Indian leader.  But to get there, initially a poor India needs considerable support to even show that they can grow. Political support from western governments that gives green signal to their companies, to invest in India (despite hurdles), can help tilt the scales. Here looks like the US government is not going to help that much and I hope NM tries to convince the Obama administration otherwise. May be Europe will. We don't know. Japan has already started.  This will one of the biggest challenges for  NM. Obtain help of cash rich western companies and pro-active support from western governments to develop India, and convince China that a rising India while causing China to lose some deals, can on the long run also benefit Chinese growth.

Typical chaddi mindset, always playing victim card and blaming others for their own shortcomings and ineptitude. Why the fuck should China care about India's economy and why should they not be worried about their interests and make attempts to save economy. I don't know what Modiji & his team is blabbering about make in India unless he runs sweatshops using child labor like they do in sivakasi or pay the lowest wages like they in Gujarat, India is not in a position to compete with other third world countries.

Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote:Also, India should play the china game...Dangling the huge Indian market to extract, bully, cajole western companies.  India has several private sector multi-nationals that the foreign companies can collaborate than develop joint ventures with chinese govt. entities. In short, the Western companies will look at market, money, and movement of capital. The whities and Japs are very smart when it comes to these three.

The part about large market and private sector co-operation is Ok. But I do not think it is advisable for India to bully anybody. Ultimately even for a large market, the buying power is essential, and companies should feel that there will be growth for them to invest capital and create jobs. Moreover, unlike China, the government cannot take extreme positions. But yes the western folks are good at this. The Japs do depend on financing from their banks and thus government green signal is essential. It is good that NM went to Japan and got the green signal from the Japanese.

Kris wrote:

rawemotions wrote:

truthbetold wrote:US is not doing anything. The economic and milatary power decides the equations.  Each country will push for set up favorable to its interests. India should focus n building its economy and improve it peoples lives. May be after another 30 years,  it will have sufficient influence to demand a seat at the table.

I agree! However, we also have to understand that in an interconnected world, perception brings in new business and opportunities, and China's current policy of treating India as the main rival in Asia, directly threatens India's rise. US was the only power that could keep it in check. 

For example, leaving aside security issues, these kind of things, matter when ASEAN +3 or ASEAN+6 grouping is decided OR when multi-lateral free trade area is formed. All these bring opportunities, and when sovereign funds invest in countries, they look for the relative weight of a country in a geo-political sense.

This article basically says that the US is throwing in the towel as far as competition with China is concerned. The worry really is what China will do, with unbridled power in Asia. The Chinese have proved themselves to be exceedingly greedy and  are known to be a bully. They are single mindedly pursuing wealth for their people, and going to great extent for that, including plunder of natural resources in other countries, and also block other powers from developing. In their quest for great power status, they are willing to prevent other powers from developing and kill competition. It is this part of Chinese policy that becomes a big issue for India. This is the greatest threat to India growth story.

Part of their behaviour until now against India, was also because of historical baggage regarding sanctuary to Tibetans etc.. But even after that issue went away, the Chinese are desperate in ensuring that India does NOT develop, because they know India can become their direct rival in competing for economic growth.

Their overall thinking  can be seen, when out of the blue they launch a "Made in China" campaign, when they see a credible "Make in India" campaign from India. There is no need for this campaign, the world has been manufacturing in China for almost two decades now. Until now, the western companies had no real alternative, and they used to acquiesce to all kind of bullying from China , and used to manufacture there, despite piracy, plagiarism in technology space, blatant disregard for IPR, and arm-twisting to transfer technology to Chinese companies. 
 
In this sense the Chinese are somewhat like imperial Britain, but now in a modern avatar, where they do this by buying the top leadership of pliant governments.  In short when it comes to economic opportunities, China is a "Thug". They do not play fair. They are like that lead footballer who will trip the other person just to win.

The economic fight with China is not going to be easy. Chinese will match every single offer that India makes, to keep western companies from channeling new investments into India rather than China. The western companies could  also leverage a considerably strong India to get better deals from China, rather than truly investing in India, because it is the incumbent and has shown that it works.


So we can see that, a developing India that competes for FDI with China, presents two challenges for China, a) they have to sweeten deals for western companies to stay in China b) they cannot bully them anymore to transfer technology.

Effectively a rising India weakens Chinese negotiating position with western companies.

Make no mistake, while being goody -goody with India and even investing in a few places to show good intent, they will unchain their attack dog "Pakistan" to create security trouble for India and deter foreign investment. India has to be on guard. India also needs to figure out a way to convince "Indian Muslims" the benefit of economic development, and police themselves to not allow Political Islamists and saboteurs from Pakistan.

The solution is for India to tackle the issue head on, and try to convince China, that a growing India can also benefit China. If NM led India can somehow mellow down China and convince their leadership of the benefits of a growing India, then this would be greatest triumph of any Indian leader.  But to get there, initially a poor India needs considerable support to even show that they can grow. Political support from western governments that gives green signal to their companies, to invest in India (despite hurdles), can help tilt the scales. Here looks like the US government is not going to help that much and I hope NM tries to convince the Obama administration otherwise. May be Europe will. We don't know. Japan has already started.  This will one of the biggest challenges for  NM. Obtain help of cash rich western companies and pro-active support from western governments to develop India, and convince China that a rising India while causing China to lose some deals, can on the long run also benefit Chinese growth.

>>>>I think India is  shrewd enough insofar as not trusting China. The "Hindi-Cheeni bhai-bhai" is hopefully a relic of the naïve past. That goes for economics as well as geopolitics vis-à-vis Pakistan. India's best bet is to play both sides, but align itself with the West for synergies. Kissinger's thesis is correct on the US/China bi-polar world and it is a redux of the erstwhile US/USSR scenario. The difference now is that the US has a weaker hand, with technology and information flow having flattened the world. The US saw the China story coming even a couple of decades ago and hence the warming up to India. I agree with you that for concrete results there need to be tangible investments of a much higher magnitude from the western business sector. I am not that optimistic about China not playing dirty or seeing the benefit of a developed India. Theirs is a self-absorbed mindset of just looking out for number one. The one silver lining here maybe that economic growth by central diktat (even loosening ones) hits roadblocks in fairly short order. So China may indeed be forced to look to India to sustain its own growth to some extent. Nevertheless, Modi has a tricky road to navigate on this front. It could be worse i.e . Rahul Gandhi could have been in power:)

I Agree with your response, especially on the last point!
On your main response, US also has another reason for its weaker hand, its debt is dominated by China as a lender. I also agree that China cannot be trusted, and it was just my wish list. 
However if Chinese economic growth hits roadblocks,  China has cultivated so many markets Europe,Africa and Latam that they can use all these to kick start growth. If at all they look at India for growth it would be only because they have exhausted all other options. For that to happen, Chinese growth should have to really falter. I see no signs of that happening. So on the whole India has to contend with a hostile China.

On the whole India has its work cut out, the only silver lining seems to be that it has a capable leader. In addition, unlike China, internal opposition to a roadmap for economic growth, from nutcases within India, the media, and those who oppose for sake of opposing also has to be managed. I hope along with NM he can convince a core group of leaders to pilot the initiatives so that things run even without a strong PMO. I hope he puts in places processes that ensures that things move without PMO intervention. Though initial interventions are necessary to change the bureaucratic mindset.

But it is not easy to kick start manufacturing, because it needs a good ecosystem. Especially it needs efficient bureacracy, roads, ports, predicable transportation time/cost, stable exchange rate and competitive cost of doing business (land/labour/capital/power) etc.. In all these aspects (except labour), thanks to congress, India is at a disadvantage, compared to China. Despite knowing all this, if China has decided to compete with India's "Make in India" campaign, they should be treating NM seriously.

rawemotions wrote:

Kris wrote:

rawemotions wrote:

truthbetold wrote:US is not doing anything. The economic and milatary power decides the equations.  Each country will push for set up favorable to its interests. India should focus n building its economy and improve it peoples lives. May be after another 30 years,  it will have sufficient influence to demand a seat at the table.

I agree! However, we also have to understand that in an interconnected world, perception brings in new business and opportunities, and China's current policy of treating India as the main rival in Asia, directly threatens India's rise. US was the only power that could keep it in check. 

For example, leaving aside security issues, these kind of things, matter when ASEAN +3 or ASEAN+6 grouping is decided OR when multi-lateral free trade area is formed. All these bring opportunities, and when sovereign funds invest in countries, they look for the relative weight of a country in a geo-political sense.

This article basically says that the US is throwing in the towel as far as competition with China is concerned. The worry really is what China will do, with unbridled power in Asia. The Chinese have proved themselves to be exceedingly greedy and  are known to be a bully. They are single mindedly pursuing wealth for their people, and going to great extent for that, including plunder of natural resources in other countries, and also block other powers from developing. In their quest for great power status, they are willing to prevent other powers from developing and kill competition. It is this part of Chinese policy that becomes a big issue for India. This is the greatest threat to India growth story.

Part of their behaviour until now against India, was also because of historical baggage regarding sanctuary to Tibetans etc.. But even after that issue went away, the Chinese are desperate in ensuring that India does NOT develop, because they know India can become their direct rival in competing for economic growth.

Their overall thinking  can be seen, when out of the blue they launch a "Made in China" campaign, when they see a credible "Make in India" campaign from India. There is no need for this campaign, the world has been manufacturing in China for almost two decades now. Until now, the western companies had no real alternative, and they used to acquiesce to all kind of bullying from China , and used to manufacture there, despite piracy, plagiarism in technology space, blatant disregard for IPR, and arm-twisting to transfer technology to Chinese companies. 
 
In this sense the Chinese are somewhat like imperial Britain, but now in a modern avatar, where they do this by buying the top leadership of pliant governments.  In short when it comes to economic opportunities, China is a "Thug". They do not play fair. They are like that lead footballer who will trip the other person just to win.

The economic fight with China is not going to be easy. Chinese will match every single offer that India makes, to keep western companies from channeling new investments into India rather than China. The western companies could  also leverage a considerably strong India to get better deals from China, rather than truly investing in India, because it is the incumbent and has shown that it works.


So we can see that, a developing India that competes for FDI with China, presents two challenges for China, a) they have to sweeten deals for western companies to stay in China b) they cannot bully them anymore to transfer technology.

Effectively a rising India weakens Chinese negotiating position with western companies.

Make no mistake, while being goody -goody with India and even investing in a few places to show good intent, they will unchain their attack dog "Pakistan" to create security trouble for India and deter foreign investment. India has to be on guard. India also needs to figure out a way to convince "Indian Muslims" the benefit of economic development, and police themselves to not allow Political Islamists and saboteurs from Pakistan.

The solution is for India to tackle the issue head on, and try to convince China, that a growing India can also benefit China. If NM led India can somehow mellow down China and convince their leadership of the benefits of a growing India, then this would be greatest triumph of any Indian leader.  But to get there, initially a poor India needs considerable support to even show that they can grow. Political support from western governments that gives green signal to their companies, to invest in India (despite hurdles), can help tilt the scales. Here looks like the US government is not going to help that much and I hope NM tries to convince the Obama administration otherwise. May be Europe will. We don't know. Japan has already started.  This will one of the biggest challenges for  NM. Obtain help of cash rich western companies and pro-active support from western governments to develop India, and convince China that a rising India while causing China to lose some deals, can on the long run also benefit Chinese growth.

>>>>I think India is  shrewd enough insofar as not trusting China. The "Hindi-Cheeni bhai-bhai" is hopefully a relic of the naïve past. That goes for economics as well as geopolitics vis-à-vis Pakistan. India's best bet is to play both sides, but align itself with the West for synergies. Kissinger's thesis is correct on the US/China bi-polar world and it is a redux of the erstwhile US/USSR scenario. The difference now is that the US has a weaker hand, with technology and information flow having flattened the world. The US saw the China story coming even a couple of decades ago and hence the warming up to India. I agree with you that for concrete results there need to be tangible investments of a much higher magnitude from the western business sector. I am not that optimistic about China not playing dirty or seeing the benefit of a developed India. Theirs is a self-absorbed mindset of just looking out for number one. The one silver lining here maybe that economic growth by central diktat (even loosening ones) hits roadblocks in fairly short order. So China may indeed be forced to look to India to sustain its own growth to some extent. Nevertheless, Modi has a tricky road to navigate on this front. It could be worse i.e . Rahul Gandhi could have been in power:)

I Agree with your response, especially on the last point!
On your main response, US also has another reason for its weaker hand, its debt is dominated by China as a lender. I also agree that China cannot be trusted, and it was just my wish list. 
However if Chinese economic growth hits roadblocks,  China has cultivated so many markets Europe,Africa and Latam that they can use all these to kick start growth. If at all they look at India for growth it would be only because they have exhausted all other options. For that to happen, Chinese growth should have to really falter. I see no signs of that happening. So on the whole India has to contend with a hostile China.

On the whole India has its work cut out, the only silver lining seems to be that it has a capable leader. In addition, unlike China, internal opposition to a roadmap for economic growth, from nutcases within India, the media, and those who oppose for sake of opposing also has to be managed. I hope along with NM he can convince a core group of leaders to pilot the initiatives so that things run even without a strong PMO. I hope he puts in places processes that ensures that things move without PMO intervention. Though initial interventions are necessary to change the bureaucratic mindset.

But it is not easy to kick start manufacturing, because it needs a good ecosystem. Especially it needs efficient bureacracy, roads, ports, predicable transportation time/cost, stable exchange rate and competitive cost of doing business (land/labour/capital/power) etc.. In all these aspects (except labour), thanks to congress, India is at a disadvantage, compared to China. Despite knowing all this, if China has decided to compete with India's "Make in India" campaign, they should be treating NM seriously.

>>>Good points on China being a major Lender and the need to create self-sustaining processes to keep things on track, in addition to building the physical infrastructure. The way I see it India can find its niche by tantalizingly holding its hand out to both economic suitors and playing them as circumstances dictate. Just be extra careful with China.

India's biggest assets are her youth and the huge internal market. As long as both of these are taken care of, she will be fine. The West is declining and it is in the West's interest to interact with a resurgent India. Hopefully, Modi will restore the merit system in education and gradually do away with the reservations system. Also, if the voters punish sikular clowns like K'nidhi, Maya, Laloo, Mulayam, Sonia/Pappu, etc., half of the development initiative is in place.

Vakavaka Pakapaka wrote:India's biggest assets are her youth and the huge internal market. As long as both of these are taken care of, she will be fine. The West is declining and it is in the West's interest to interact with a resurgent India. Hopefully, Modi will restore the merit system in education and gradually do away with the reservations system. Also, if the voters punish sikular clowns like K'nidhi, Maya, Laloo, Mulayam, Sonia/Pappu, etc., half of the development initiative is in place.

Youth will be the biggest burden if you fail to utilize them properly. You are completely off the mark with your suggestions (as is the case with the most of Modiji's followers) on utilizing them. Most of the youth don't even have resources to attend secondary school let alone going through college education & reservations you're talking about. Right now, they don't have any specific skill set thus are relegated to agricultural sector. What India needs is major reforms at primary & secondary schooling system level that introduce these poor young kids to vocational courses and makes them skillful enough to find jobs in other sectors like manufacturing that Modiji is talking about. That is how you can keep the costs low enough to compete with the Chinas & Indonesia's of the world.

confuzzled dude wrote:

Vakavaka Pakapaka wrote:India's biggest assets are her youth and the huge internal market. As long as both of these are taken care of, she will be fine. The West is declining and it is in the West's interest to interact with a resurgent India. Hopefully, Modi will restore the merit system in education and gradually do away with the reservations system. Also, if the voters punish sikular clowns like K'nidhi, Maya, Laloo, Mulayam, Sonia/Pappu, etc., half of the development initiative is in place.

Youth will be the biggest burden if you fail to utilize them properly. You are completely off the mark with your suggestions (as is the case with the most of Modiji's followers) on utilizing them. Most of the youth don't even have resources to attend secondary school let alone going through college education & reservations you're talking. Right now, they don't have any specific skill set thus are relegated to agricultural sector. What India needs is major reforms at primary & secondary schooling system that introduce these poor young kids to vocational courses and makes them skillful enough to find jobs in other sectors like manufacturing that Modiji is talking about. That is how you can keep the costs low enough to compete with the Chinas & Indonesia's of the world.

CD

Why did congress not do that for the past 67 years?  How did you realize this great truth just in time for modi?

truthbetold wrote:

confuzzled dude wrote:

Vakavaka Pakapaka wrote:India's biggest assets are her youth and the huge internal market. As long as both of these are taken care of, she will be fine. The West is declining and it is in the West's interest to interact with a resurgent India. Hopefully, Modi will restore the merit system in education and gradually do away with the reservations system. Also, if the voters punish sikular clowns like K'nidhi, Maya, Laloo, Mulayam, Sonia/Pappu, etc., half of the development initiative is in place.

Youth will be the biggest burden if you fail to utilize them properly. You are completely off the mark with your suggestions (as is the case with the most of Modiji's followers) on utilizing them. Most of the youth don't even have resources to attend secondary school let alone going through college education & reservations you're talking. Right now, they don't have any specific skill set thus are relegated to agricultural sector. What India needs is major reforms at primary & secondary schooling system that introduce these poor young kids to vocational courses and makes them skillful enough to find jobs in other sectors like manufacturing that Modiji is talking about. That is how you can keep the costs low enough to compete with the Chinas & Indonesia's of the world.

CD

Why did congress not do that for the past 67 years?  How did you realize this great truth just in time for modi?

Congress & UPA's liberalization policies have helped Indian economy to grow, these new measures are to solidify, enhance & take it to the next level on the platform established by Congress/UPA

CD

Thanks for the clarification.  At 67 years of Independence and most of it under congress rule, most of 800 million youth don't have any specific skills thus are relegated to agricultural sector.  You also said that congress policies in this period also helped indian economy to grow.  But if India needs to grow under modi,  he has to somehow bridge the skill gap created for 67 years overnight to consolidate the past gains and grow to next level .  

Is there any contradictions in your arguments?  But then you say you are confused.

truthbetold wrote:CD

Thanks for the clarification.  At 67 years of Independence and most of it under congress rule, most of 800 million youth don't have any specific skills thus are relegated to agricultural sector.  You also said that congress policies in this period also helped indian economy to grow.  But if India needs to grow under modi,  he has to somehow bridge the skill gap created for 67 years overnight to consolidate the past gains and grow to next level .  

Is there any contradictions in your arguments?  But then you say you are confused.

Did I say Congress was perfect? Did I say Modi has to accomplish all this overnight? In fact it is his bhajan-artists that think he can make a difference overnight and set the bar high.

CD

You never said congress is imperfect in any way.  Even when some of pointed to its glaringly visible follies, you and some of your cohorts argued that congress is doing a bang up job.  

Now the people of india thought otherwise.  Now other group is enthusiastic about india's prospects. You throw up idea wrenches into the spoke of the bike.  We are just responding back to you , the bike is strong enough to reject your negative idea wrenches.

truthbetold wrote:CD

You never said congress is imperfect in any way.  Even when some of pointed to its glaringly visible follies, you and some of your cohorts argued that congress is doing a bang up job.  

Now the people of india thought otherwise.  Now other group is enthusiastic about india's prospects. You throw up idea wrenches into the spoke of the bike.  We are just responding back to you , the bike is strong enough to reject your negative idea wrenches.

First make sure that bike wasn't imported from China

Kris wrote:

rawemotions wrote:

Kris wrote:

rawemotions wrote:

truthbetold wrote:US is not doing anything. The economic and milatary power decides the equations.  Each country will push for set up favorable to its interests. India should focus n building its economy and improve it peoples lives. May be after another 30 years,  it will have sufficient influence to demand a seat at the table.

I agree! However, we also have to understand that in an interconnected world, perception brings in new business and opportunities, and China's current policy of treating India as the main rival in Asia, directly threatens India's rise. US was the only power that could keep it in check. 

For example, leaving aside security issues, these kind of things, matter when ASEAN +3 or ASEAN+6 grouping is decided OR when multi-lateral free trade area is formed. All these bring opportunities, and when sovereign funds invest in countries, they look for the relative weight of a country in a geo-political sense.

This article basically says that the US is throwing in the towel as far as competition with China is concerned. The worry really is what China will do, with unbridled power in Asia. The Chinese have proved themselves to be exceedingly greedy and  are known to be a bully. They are single mindedly pursuing wealth for their people, and going to great extent for that, including plunder of natural resources in other countries, and also block other powers from developing. In their quest for great power status, they are willing to prevent other powers from developing and kill competition. It is this part of Chinese policy that becomes a big issue for India. This is the greatest threat to India growth story.

Part of their behaviour until now against India, was also because of historical baggage regarding sanctuary to Tibetans etc.. But even after that issue went away, the Chinese are desperate in ensuring that India does NOT develop, because they know India can become their direct rival in competing for economic growth.

Their overall thinking  can be seen, when out of the blue they launch a "Made in China" campaign, when they see a credible "Make in India" campaign from India. There is no need for this campaign, the world has been manufacturing in China for almost two decades now. Until now, the western companies had no real alternative, and they used to acquiesce to all kind of bullying from China , and used to manufacture there, despite piracy, plagiarism in technology space, blatant disregard for IPR, and arm-twisting to transfer technology to Chinese companies. 
 
In this sense the Chinese are somewhat like imperial Britain, but now in a modern avatar, where they do this by buying the top leadership of pliant governments.  In short when it comes to economic opportunities, China is a "Thug". They do not play fair. They are like that lead footballer who will trip the other person just to win.

The economic fight with China is not going to be easy. Chinese will match every single offer that India makes, to keep western companies from channeling new investments into India rather than China. The western companies could  also leverage a considerably strong India to get better deals from China, rather than truly investing in India, because it is the incumbent and has shown that it works.


So we can see that, a developing India that competes for FDI with China, presents two challenges for China, a) they have to sweeten deals for western companies to stay in China b) they cannot bully them anymore to transfer technology.

Effectively a rising India weakens Chinese negotiating position with western companies.

Make no mistake, while being goody -goody with India and even investing in a few places to show good intent, they will unchain their attack dog "Pakistan" to create security trouble for India and deter foreign investment. India has to be on guard. India also needs to figure out a way to convince "Indian Muslims" the benefit of economic development, and police themselves to not allow Political Islamists and saboteurs from Pakistan.

The solution is for India to tackle the issue head on, and try to convince China, that a growing India can also benefit China. If NM led India can somehow mellow down China and convince their leadership of the benefits of a growing India, then this would be greatest triumph of any Indian leader.  But to get there, initially a poor India needs considerable support to even show that they can grow. Political support from western governments that gives green signal to their companies, to invest in India (despite hurdles), can help tilt the scales. Here looks like the US government is not going to help that much and I hope NM tries to convince the Obama administration otherwise. May be Europe will. We don't know. Japan has already started.  This will one of the biggest challenges for  NM. Obtain help of cash rich western companies and pro-active support from western governments to develop India, and convince China that a rising India while causing China to lose some deals, can on the long run also benefit Chinese growth.

>>>>I think India is  shrewd enough insofar as not trusting China. The "Hindi-Cheeni bhai-bhai" is hopefully a relic of the naïve past. That goes for economics as well as geopolitics vis-à-vis Pakistan. India's best bet is to play both sides, but align itself with the West for synergies. Kissinger's thesis is correct on the US/China bi-polar world and it is a redux of the erstwhile US/USSR scenario. The difference now is that the US has a weaker hand, with technology and information flow having flattened the world. The US saw the China story coming even a couple of decades ago and hence the warming up to India. I agree with you that for concrete results there need to be tangible investments of a much higher magnitude from the western business sector. I am not that optimistic about China not playing dirty or seeing the benefit of a developed India. Theirs is a self-absorbed mindset of just looking out for number one. The one silver lining here maybe that economic growth by central diktat (even loosening ones) hits roadblocks in fairly short order. So China may indeed be forced to look to India to sustain its own growth to some extent. Nevertheless, Modi has a tricky road to navigate on this front. It could be worse i.e . Rahul Gandhi could have been in power:)

I Agree with your response, especially on the last point!
On your main response, US also has another reason for its weaker hand, its debt is dominated by China as a lender. I also agree that China cannot be trusted, and it was just my wish list. 
However if Chinese economic growth hits roadblocks,  China has cultivated so many markets Europe,Africa and Latam that they can use all these to kick start growth. If at all they look at India for growth it would be only because they have exhausted all other options. For that to happen, Chinese growth should have to really falter. I see no signs of that happening. So on the whole India has to contend with a hostile China.

On the whole India has its work cut out, the only silver lining seems to be that it has a capable leader. In addition, unlike China, internal opposition to a roadmap for economic growth, from nutcases within India, the media, and those who oppose for sake of opposing also has to be managed. I hope along with NM he can convince a core group of leaders to pilot the initiatives so that things run even without a strong PMO. I hope he puts in places processes that ensures that things move without PMO intervention. Though initial interventions are necessary to change the bureaucratic mindset.

But it is not easy to kick start manufacturing, because it needs a good ecosystem. Especially it needs efficient bureacracy, roads, ports, predicable transportation time/cost, stable exchange rate and competitive cost of doing business (land/labour/capital/power) etc.. In all these aspects (except labour), thanks to congress, India is at a disadvantage, compared to China. Despite knowing all this, if China has decided to compete with India's "Make in India" campaign, they should be treating NM seriously.

>>>Good points on China being a major Lender and the need to create self-sustaining processes to keep things on track, in addition to building the physical infrastructure. The way I see it India can find its niche by tantalizingly holding its hand out to both economic suitors and playing them as circumstances dictate. Just be extra careful with China.

Unfortunately regarding your last sentence, it is possible only if the strategy is well though out, and the entire country speaks in once voice. Since that does not happen in India, any party on the opposite side of the table exploits the internal divisions (POSCO etc..)

In addition, i have another worry. I fear manufacturing itself may not remain the same, and in about a decade, much of the west, would have moved on to 3-D printing. I hope somebody tells NM that there is a threat to job generation in Manufacturing as an area, and those skills could become redundant. All the traditional manufacturing related skill development that NM wants to invest in, could become useless (especially for jobless youth who just learn to just operate a certain machine like CNC's etc..). 

Here, it is better to have good relations with Germany. Germans are the experts in producing capital equipment for manufacturing. Much of what China uses for manufacturing came from Germany. India should make a political deal with Germany, so that German government, green signals their companies to transfer latest technologies to India in manufacturing. Perhaps NM should look for ways to be-friend Merkel, like the way he be-friended Abe. He should use British connections to get close to Europe and then Germans.

On the flip side, 3-D printing would need some investment in software, so India has a large set of people, training themselves in software. However this advantage will not hold long enough, since China is heavily into English, and the younger lot are now equally well versed in English, and are fast losing their accent, to compete with India in IT services. NIIT is also doing their bit in China. Modi is specifically focused on electronic manufacturing. Here already a big portion is automated, and 3-D printing can easily make inroads. So the threat is more real.

Perhaps, India should aggressively embrace 3-d printing, nano tech and a few other areas  to keep up with the developments here. Even here, in nanotech,  China already generates highest number of nanotech patents each year. 


Thus, even if we are extra-careful with China, the Indian government needs to navigate quite a few potholes in job generation. India needs something like EDB of Singapore and MITI of Japan, a body that can understand technology and its impact on commerce. this body needs to collaborate with Bharat Forge/Micromax/Steel companies etc to understand trends in manufacturing. India's record is quite poor here.  Today much of the 900 Miilion phones sold in India are made in China, as explained by Modi himself. A few years back Ajanta clocks entirely shifted to China, saying it is not competitive to manufacture in India.


In addition, India should also look into food processing for job generation. NM has talked about it. But here the Goliath to beat is Brazil, which exports USD 50 Billion each year. We should convince Brazilian food processing companies  to invest in India, for exports to Far east and Central Asia/Middle East, at least to learn about their ways of enhancing productivity in food processing. But we are hamstrung by water resources here, so there is a limit to what can be achieved.


On the whole, on job generation, I do not see low hanging fruits.  Each path is a maze of thorns. Each of these areas will add some jobs, but nothing will get us to adding the 20 Million new jobs, required each year for the young who are growing up. Success is possible only if job generation becomes a national mission, and every section of the society education sector, government, finance sector and private sector work together to always find ways to look for opportunities and support each other. 

On the long run, I feel India should move to focus on per-capita GDP as growth measure, rather than just talk about demographic dividend and total GDP etc.. There just isn't as many opportunities to create jobs if the population growth keeps up at the current pace.

rawemotions wrote:
Unfortunately regarding your last sentence, it is possible only if the strategy is well though out, and the entire country speaks in once voice. Since that does not happen in India, any party on the opposite side of the table exploits the internal divisions (POSCO etc..)

In addition, i have another worry. I fear manufacturing itself may not remain the same, and in about a decade, much of the west, would have moved on to 3-D printing. I hope somebody tells NM that there is a threat to job generation in Manufacturing as an area, and those skills could become redundant. All the traditional manufacturing related skill development that NM wants to invest in, could become useless (especially for jobless youth who just learn to just operate a certain machine like CNC's etc..). 

Here, it is better to have good relations with Germany. Germans are the experts in producing capital equipment for manufacturing. Much of what China uses for manufacturing came from Germany. India should make a political deal with Germany, so that German government, green signals their companies to transfer latest technologies to India in manufacturing. Perhaps NM should look for ways to be-friend Merkel, like the way he be-friended Abe. He should use British connections to get close to Europe and then Germans.

On the flip side, 3-D printing would need some investment in software, so India has a large set of people, training themselves in software. However this advantage will not hold long enough, since China is heavily into English, and the younger lot are now equally well versed in English, and are fast losing their accent, to compete with India in IT services. NIIT is also doing their bit in China. Modi is specifically focused on electronic manufacturing. Here already a big portion is automated, and 3-D printing can easily make inroads. So the threat is more real.

Perhaps, India should aggressively embrace 3-d printing, nano tech and a few other areas  to keep up with the developments here. Even here, in nanotech,  China already generates highest number of nanotech patents each year. 

Thus, even if we are extra-careful with China, the Indian government needs to navigate quite a few potholes in job generation. India needs something like EDB of Singapore and MITI of Japan, a body that can understand technology and its impact on commerce. this body needs to collaborate with Bharat Forge/Micromax/Steel companies etc to understand trends in manufacturing. India's record is quite poor here.  Today much of the 900 Miilion phones sold in India are made in China, as explained by Modi himself. A few years back Ajanta clocks entirely shifted to China, saying it is not competitive to manufacture in India.

In addition, India should also look into food processing for job generation. NM has talked about it. But here the Goliath to beat is Brazil, which exports USD 50 Billion each year. We should convince Brazilian food processing companies  to invest in India, for exports to Far east and Central Asia/Middle East, at least to learn about their ways of enhancing productivity in food processing. But we are hamstrung by water resources here, so there is a limit to what can be achieved.

On the whole, on job generation, I do not see low hanging fruits.  Each path is a maze of thorns. Each of these areas will add some jobs, but nothing will get us to adding the 20 Million new jobs, required each year for the young who are growing up. Success is possible only if job generation becomes a national mission, and every section of the society education sector, government, finance sector and private sector work together to always find ways to look for opportunities and support each other. 

On the long run, I feel India should move to focus on per-capita GDP as growth measure, rather than just talk about demographic dividend and total GDP etc.. There just isn't as many opportunities to create jobs if the population growth keeps up at the current pace.

Oh! no we're doomed man.. what do we do now.. How many millions of jobs would that 3-d printing generate?

rawemotions wrote:

Kris wrote:

rawemotions wrote:

Kris wrote:

rawemotions wrote:
I agree! However, we also have to understand that in an interconnected world, perception brings in new business and opportunities, and China's current policy of treating India as the main rival in Asia, directly threatens India's rise. US was the only power that could keep it in check. 

For example, leaving aside security issues, these kind of things, matter when ASEAN +3 or ASEAN+6 grouping is decided OR when multi-lateral free trade area is formed. All these bring opportunities, and when sovereign funds invest in countries, they look for the relative weight of a country in a geo-political sense.

This article basically says that the US is throwing in the towel as far as competition with China is concerned. The worry really is what China will do, with unbridled power in Asia. The Chinese have proved themselves to be exceedingly greedy and  are known to be a bully. They are single mindedly pursuing wealth for their people, and going to great extent for that, including plunder of natural resources in other countries, and also block other powers from developing. In their quest for great power status, they are willing to prevent other powers from developing and kill competition. It is this part of Chinese policy that becomes a big issue for India. This is the greatest threat to India growth story.

Part of their behaviour until now against India, was also because of historical baggage regarding sanctuary to Tibetans etc.. But even after that issue went away, the Chinese are desperate in ensuring that India does NOT develop, because they know India can become their direct rival in competing for economic growth.

Their overall thinking  can be seen, when out of the blue they launch a "Made in China" campaign, when they see a credible "Make in India" campaign from India. There is no need for this campaign, the world has been manufacturing in China for almost two decades now. Until now, the western companies had no real alternative, and they used to acquiesce to all kind of bullying from China , and used to manufacture there, despite piracy, plagiarism in technology space, blatant disregard for IPR, and arm-twisting to transfer technology to Chinese companies. 
 
In this sense the Chinese are somewhat like imperial Britain, but now in a modern avatar, where they do this by buying the top leadership of pliant governments.  In short when it comes to economic opportunities, China is a "Thug". They do not play fair. They are like that lead footballer who will trip the other person just to win.

The economic fight with China is not going to be easy. Chinese will match every single offer that India makes, to keep western companies from channeling new investments into India rather than China. The western companies could  also leverage a considerably strong India to get better deals from China, rather than truly investing in India, because it is the incumbent and has shown that it works.


So we can see that, a developing India that competes for FDI with China, presents two challenges for China, a) they have to sweeten deals for western companies to stay in China b) they cannot bully them anymore to transfer technology.

Effectively a rising India weakens Chinese negotiating position with western companies.

Make no mistake, while being goody -goody with India and even investing in a few places to show good intent, they will unchain their attack dog "Pakistan" to create security trouble for India and deter foreign investment. India has to be on guard. India also needs to figure out a way to convince "Indian Muslims" the benefit of economic development, and police themselves to not allow Political Islamists and saboteurs from Pakistan.

The solution is for India to tackle the issue head on, and try to convince China, that a growing India can also benefit China. If NM led India can somehow mellow down China and convince their leadership of the benefits of a growing India, then this would be greatest triumph of any Indian leader.  But to get there, initially a poor India needs considerable support to even show that they can grow. Political support from western governments that gives green signal to their companies, to invest in India (despite hurdles), can help tilt the scales. Here looks like the US government is not going to help that much and I hope NM tries to convince the Obama administration otherwise. May be Europe will. We don't know. Japan has already started.  This will one of the biggest challenges for  NM. Obtain help of cash rich western companies and pro-active support from western governments to develop India, and convince China that a rising India while causing China to lose some deals, can on the long run also benefit Chinese growth.

>>>>I think India is  shrewd enough insofar as not trusting China. The "Hindi-Cheeni bhai-bhai" is hopefully a relic of the naïve past. That goes for economics as well as geopolitics vis-à-vis Pakistan. India's best bet is to play both sides, but align itself with the West for synergies. Kissinger's thesis is correct on the US/China bi-polar world and it is a redux of the erstwhile US/USSR scenario. The difference now is that the US has a weaker hand, with technology and information flow having flattened the world. The US saw the China story coming even a couple of decades ago and hence the warming up to India. I agree with you that for concrete results there need to be tangible investments of a much higher magnitude from the western business sector. I am not that optimistic about China not playing dirty or seeing the benefit of a developed India. Theirs is a self-absorbed mindset of just looking out for number one. The one silver lining here maybe that economic growth by central diktat (even loosening ones) hits roadblocks in fairly short order. So China may indeed be forced to look to India to sustain its own growth to some extent. Nevertheless, Modi has a tricky road to navigate on this front. It could be worse i.e . Rahul Gandhi could have been in power:)

I Agree with your response, especially on the last point!
On your main response, US also has another reason for its weaker hand, its debt is dominated by China as a lender. I also agree that China cannot be trusted, and it was just my wish list. 
However if Chinese economic growth hits roadblocks,  China has cultivated so many markets Europe,Africa and Latam that they can use all these to kick start growth. If at all they look at India for growth it would be only because they have exhausted all other options. For that to happen, Chinese growth should have to really falter. I see no signs of that happening. So on the whole India has to contend with a hostile China.

On the whole India has its work cut out, the only silver lining seems to be that it has a capable leader. In addition, unlike China, internal opposition to a roadmap for economic growth, from nutcases within India, the media, and those who oppose for sake of opposing also has to be managed. I hope along with NM he can convince a core group of leaders to pilot the initiatives so that things run even without a strong PMO. I hope he puts in places processes that ensures that things move without PMO intervention. Though initial interventions are necessary to change the bureaucratic mindset.

But it is not easy to kick start manufacturing, because it needs a good ecosystem. Especially it needs efficient bureacracy, roads, ports, predicable transportation time/cost, stable exchange rate and competitive cost of doing business (land/labour/capital/power) etc.. In all these aspects (except labour), thanks to congress, India is at a disadvantage, compared to China. Despite knowing all this, if China has decided to compete with India's "Make in India" campaign, they should be treating NM seriously.

>>>Good points on China being a major Lender and the need to create self-sustaining processes to keep things on track, in addition to building the physical infrastructure. The way I see it India can find its niche by tantalizingly holding its hand out to both economic suitors and playing them as circumstances dictate. Just be extra careful with China.

Unfortunately regarding your last sentence, it is possible only if the strategy is well though out, and the entire country speaks in once voice. Since that does not happen in India, any party on the opposite side of the table exploits the internal divisions (POSCO etc..)

In addition, i have another worry. I fear manufacturing itself may not remain the same, and in about a decade, much of the west, would have moved on to 3-D printing. I hope somebody tells NM that there is a threat to job generation in Manufacturing as an area, and those skills could become redundant. All the traditional manufacturing related skill development that NM wants to invest in, could become useless (especially for jobless youth who just learn to just operate a certain machine like CNC's etc..). 

Here, it is better to have good relations with Germany. Germans are the experts in producing capital equipment for manufacturing. Much of what China uses for manufacturing came from Germany. India should make a political deal with Germany, so that German government, green signals their companies to transfer latest technologies to India in manufacturing. Perhaps NM should look for ways to be-friend Merkel, like the way he be-friended Abe. He should use British connections to get close to Europe and then Germans.

On the flip side, 3-D printing would need some investment in software, so India has a large set of people, training themselves in software. However this advantage will not hold long enough, since China is heavily into English, and the younger lot are now equally well versed in English, and are fast losing their accent, to compete with India in IT services. NIIT is also doing their bit in China. Modi is specifically focused on electronic manufacturing. Here already a big portion is automated, and 3-D printing can easily make inroads. So the threat is more real.

Perhaps, India should aggressively embrace 3-d printing, nano tech and a few other areas  to keep up with the developments here. Even here, in nanotech,  China already generates highest number of nanotech patents each year. 


Thus, even if we are extra-careful with China, the Indian government needs to navigate quite a few potholes in job generation. India needs something like EDB of Singapore and MITI of Japan, a body that can understand technology and its impact on commerce. this body needs to collaborate with Bharat Forge/Micromax/Steel companies etc to understand trends in manufacturing. India's record is quite poor here.  Today much of the 900 Miilion phones sold in India are made in China, as explained by Modi himself. A few years back Ajanta clocks entirely shifted to China, saying it is not competitive to manufacture in India.


In addition, India should also look into food processing for job generation. NM has talked about it. But here the Goliath to beat is Brazil, which exports USD 50 Billion each year. We should convince Brazilian food processing companies  to invest in India, for exports to Far east and Central Asia/Middle East, at least to learn about their ways of enhancing productivity in food processing. But we are hamstrung by water resources here, so there is a limit to what can be achieved.


On the whole, on job generation, I do not see low hanging fruits.  Each path is a maze of thorns. Each of these areas will add some jobs, but nothing will get us to adding the 20 Million new jobs, required each year for the young who are growing up. Success is possible only if job generation becomes a national mission, and every section of the society education sector, government, finance sector and private sector work together to always find ways to look for opportunities and support each other. 

On the long run, I feel India should move to focus on per-capita GDP as growth measure, rather than just talk about demographic dividend and total GDP etc.. There just isn't as many opportunities to create jobs if the population growth keeps up at the current pace.

>>>>Good recap on the hurdles that lie ahead for India. In my previous post(s), I was referring only to where India can place itself in the emerging China/US world. The hard work of building the economy and putting in mechanisms to sustain economic growth and staying ahead of the technology curve needs to be done by India. The need for alliances with other countries to piggyback on their strengths is a prereq. I also agree with an EDB like apparatus- ahem, an apolitical one- would be essential. The country lost a lot of ground with socialism and now needs to catch up.

Raw

3D manufacturing is not a replacement for manufacturing. Not for several life times.  To make it easy to understand 3d manufacturing, think of injection molding.  It serves an important part of manufacturing but cannot replace all manufacturing.

3D is very useful for small volume relatively complex products or game figures or dental implants.  It is a very expensive process to do simple machined parts or in most cases it is not an alternative to machined parts. 

modi's problem is not 3D.  It is labor union philosophy and infrastructure.  SO far india's major success came from ideas that circumvent labor unions and infrastructure. i.e. software, cell phones.  

You identified food processing industry.  There is a real winner.  A distributed successful food processing industry will consume raw material locally and move packaged goods to market minimizing infrastructure demands.

truthbetold wrote:Raw

3D manufacturing is not a replacement for manufacturing. Not for several life times.  To make it easy to understand 3d manufacturing, think of injection molding.  It serves an important part of manufacturing but cannot replace all manufacturing.

3D is very useful for small volume relatively complex products or game figures or dental implants.  It is a very expensive process to do simple machined parts or in most cases it is not an alternative to machined parts. 

modi's problem is not 3D.  It is labor union philosophy and infrastructure.  SO far india's major success came from ideas that circumvent labor unions and infrastructure. i.e. software, cell phones.  

You identified food processing industry.  There is a real winner.  A distributed successful food processing industry will consume raw material locally and move packaged goods to market minimizing infrastructure demands.

When is Modiji enforcing the ban on beef export; does your winner includes that sector or just grains and seafood

CD

why don't you ask modiji yourself?  or ask your MP friend to ask him in Parliament.

I would unleash a beef export policy and a leather goods export policy. You are out of power and I am never in power. neither of our opinion counts.

truthbetold wrote:Raw

3D manufacturing is not a replacement for manufacturing. Not for several life times.  To make it easy to understand 3d manufacturing, think of injection molding.  It serves an important part of manufacturing but cannot replace all manufacturing.

3D is very useful for small volume relatively complex products or game figures or dental implants.  It is a very expensive process to do simple machined parts or in most cases it is not an alternative to machined parts. 

modi's problem is not 3D.  It is labor union philosophy and infrastructure.  SO far india's major success came from ideas that circumvent labor unions and infrastructure. i.e. software, cell phones.  

You identified food processing industry.  There is a real winner.  A distributed successful food processing industry will consume raw material locally and move packaged goods to market minimizing infrastructure demands.

On 3-D printing, there are major start-ups working on getting this into mass manufacturing. I talked about the status a decade from now. I am not sure what will happen then, but at some point the local manufacturing from 3-D printing could be cheaper than manufacturing abroad+ transportation cost.

I agree on labor issues. labor reforms are also essential.  However, proliferation of cell phones has not really helped to create manufacturing jobs  in India. Chinese benefited. They supply majority of the base stations and cell phone components. I would in fact consider, it a massive failure to capitalize on the market demand.