The knives will be out for Narendra Modi if the BJP loses in Bihar

by Guest Tue Oct 20, 2015 7:04 am

http://indianexpress.com/article/blogs/modi-vs-rahul-worked-but-modi-vs-nitish-could-become-a-tactical-error/?SocialMedia

by Guest Tue Oct 20, 2015 7:07 am

Rashmun wrote:http://indianexpress.com/article/blogs/modi-vs-rahul-worked-but-modi-vs-nitish-could-become-a-tactical-error/?SocialMedia

The outcome of Bihar election is watched very carefully by the entire country and, maybe the world, as the results are bound to change the future polity of the country. If Modi wins, which is a BIG IF, he will become much more larger than the party and the government; he becomes much more authoritarian and aggressive as he will consider the victory as a referendum on his style of functioning.
But if he loses then his grip on the party and the government will slip to a very great extent. Rivals within the party, quiet and subdued so far, will become very vocal and the proverbial knives would be out in the open. The pressure will also mount on Amit Shah. His continuation as the president of the BJP for the second term could be challenged by some in the party.

by truthbetold Tue Oct 20, 2015 8:11 pm

Rash,

My two cents. BJP self destructed its chances of winning in Bihar due to acts of intolerance such as Dadri lynching and due to arrogant comments about controversial issues like beef, religion, reservations. Nitish and Laloo are far more formidable than Rahul and Sonia.

Modi's opponents are not yet strong enough to challenge him within his party but they are getting some breathing room. Modi is going to be fine for forseable future. He still enjoys immense popularity around India.

by Guest Wed Oct 21, 2015 3:04 pm

truthbetold wrote:Rash,

My two cents. BJP self destructed its chances of winning in Bihar due to acts of intolerance such as Dadri lynching and due to arrogant comments about controversial issues like beef, religion, reservations. Nitish and Laloo are far more formidable than Rahul and Sonia.

Modi's opponents are not yet strong enough to challenge him within his party but they are getting some breathing room. Modi is going to be fine for forseable future. He still enjoys immense popularity around India.

i agree that Modi will continue to be formidable within his party even if the BJP loses in Bihar (as seems likely), but i think his stature will decline. The teflon would have become tarnished; the halo around Modi would become dim. The real test will be Uttar Pradesh in early 2017. If BJP does badly in UP also then we can expect the knives to be out in earnest. I don't buy Saamiyaar's theory that Modi will split the party. The RSS controls the BJP and Modi represents the RSS.

In Uttar Pradesh, the BJP seems to have some kind of informal understanding with Mulayam Singh Yadava (just as it has developed an understanding with Sharad Pawar's NCP in Maharashtra). I expect Mayawati and Congress to fight the UP elections jointly with maybe some smaller allies, and Mayawati can be expected to become the next CM. (The law and order situation has detoriated drastically since Mulayam's party came to power.) If that happens, in 2017, then we can expect Modi to not become the PM in 2019.

Mulayam and the BJP indulge in secret political deals, but the problem is that they cannot join hands because if Mulayam does so he will lose the muslim vote completely. (Muslims comprise 18% of UP's population.) Mayawati and the Congress are natural allies--the core vote bank consisting of dalits (20% of the population) and muslims. Much will depend on how the brahmins of UP (comprising 9% of the population) decide to vote for; the brahmins have voted for Mayawati in the past when they wanted to get rid of Mulayam.

by Guest Wed Oct 21, 2015 3:06 pm

http://www.hindustantimes.com/india/bihar-s-grand-alliance-scores-high-in-battle-of-perceptions/story-KqsqLDXiyVc1wjWcxpxVtM.html

by truthbetold Wed Oct 21, 2015 6:59 pm

Modi's future depends on how well Indian economy performs. He is still calling the shots correctly on economy. But International investing environment is pretty messy and could create severe capital constraints for India and other emerging markets. We will have to wait and see how this unfolds.

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