2015 summary and 2016 predictions for Indian economy

The finance minister's job is a difficult one. Arun Jaitley has tried to talk up the Indian economy, but facts are against him. For example, exports, on which the robustness of the economy depended have fallen sharply.

Over the last year, exports have dropped by 16.52 per cent. In November 2015 alone, exports crashed by 24 per cent or $20 billion. In the first nine months of 2015, Indian exports declined by 17 per cent, while world exports fell by 11 per cent.

What about increases in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) which the finance minister claims? According to Emkay Global, FDI, instead of of increasing domestic manufacturing, has contributed to increasing imports.

Job creation, in the face of large-scale unemployment, is critical.

In April-June 2014, new jobs created in eight major sectors of the economy were only 1.82 lakh. In the next quarter, job creation dropped to 1.2 lakh. After that, in the following quarter, job creation slumped to 64,000 jobs. By April-June 2015, new job creation contracted to only 43,000.

truthbetold wrote:India did reasonably well in 2015 considering the world economy. Made several strides in improving investment climate in India. Got attention of all major economies of the world (USA, Japan, UK, France, Germany, and Australia).  Inflation and budget deficit were subdued.  Industry is slowly taking risks.  Etc.

Weak points: severe down in exports,  failure to pass GST and landbill. Yes, congress is playing the obstruction game. But that is to be expected. (In my opinion this is like American state dept being surprised by Shia - sunni killings in Iraq after the fall of Saddam. ).
BJP failed to come up with an alternate strategy. Etc.

Failure: Modi govt group's (ruling elite) ability to control right wing induced cow killings and anti muslim word storms.  

On a scale of 1 to 10:  

Economy -  7
Politics  - 4

2016 predictions:

Economy - Inflation and budget deficit are likely to turn to difficult manage items. Industrial investment picks up. Further momentum in GDP growth is tied to world economic growth. If GDP growth hits 8% in any quarter, it would e big positive.
Real estate will improve but price growth is likely to moderate.

Politics: Rajya sabha tangle will continue. 2015 trend of opposition finding its voice will improve and NDA front unity will continue to weaken.  

truthbetold wrote:Uppili,

You are cheating. We all know sun comes up in the east and jagan is corrupt.

confuzzled dude wrote:

truthbetold wrote:Uppili,

You are cheating. We all know sun comes up in the east and jagan is corrupt.

And only extremely gullible believe that AP was free of corruption, except under YSR. For all the rubbish peddled by CBN fans, he has done nothing to improve conditions of the poor or farmers. For all those economic reforms you rave about ceaselessly, they didn't do much, they didn't expand the middle-class by much as you like to boast mindlessly, just look around your extended family and friends, only those who were already middle class living decent lives were benefited by these so called reforms. These guys could already afford to send their kids to private schools, own a scooter or bike; now they send them to expensive private/international schools, own cars etc., Those who were poor gotten poorer, income inequality has widened. Schemes like free power for farmers, Arogya Sree and MGNRGEA are needed for upliftment of poor. It is not YSR's or MMS's fault that they are not implemented properly or misused at bureaucratic levels.

truthbetold wrote:

confuzzled dude wrote:

truthbetold wrote:Uppili,

You are cheating. We all know sun comes up in the east and jagan is corrupt.

And only extremely gullible believe that AP was free of corruption, except under YSR. For all the rubbish peddled by CBN fans, he has done nothing to improve conditions of the poor or farmers. For all those economic reforms you rave about ceaselessly, they didn't do much, they didn't expand the middle-class by much as you like to boast mindlessly, just look around your extended family and friends, only those who were already middle class living decent lives were benefited by these so called reforms. These guys could already afford to send their kids to private schools, own a scooter or bike; now they send them to expensive private/international schools, own cars etc., Those who were poor gotten poorer, income inequality has widened. Schemes like free power for farmers, Arogya Sree and MGNRGEA are needed for upliftment of poor. It is not YSR's or MMS's fault that they are not implemented properly or misused at bureaucratic levels.

CD,

It is not my fault if truth hurts.  

truthbetold wrote:CD,

self delusion and sulking.  Give up the bad habit. Even smokers recover a little bit of health.

truthbetold wrote:India did reasonably well in 2015 considering the world economy. Made several strides in improving investment climate in India. Got attention of all major economies of the world (USA, Japan, UK, France, Germany, and Australia).  Inflation and budget deficit were subdued.  Industry is slowly taking risks.  Etc.

Weak points: severe down in exports,  failure to pass GST and landbill. Yes, congress is playing the obstruction game. But that is to be expected. (In my opinion this is like American state dept being surprised by Shia - sunni killings in Iraq after the fall of Saddam. ).
BJP failed to come up with an alternate strategy. Etc.

Failure: Modi govt group's (ruling elite) ability to control right wing induced cow killings and anti muslim word storms.  

On a scale of 1 to 10:  

Economy -  7
Politics  - 4

2016 predictions:

Economy - Inflation and budget deficit are likely to turn to difficult manage items. Industrial investment picks up. Further momentum in GDP growth is tied to world economic growth. If GDP growth hits 8% in any quarter, it would e big positive.
Real estate will improve but price growth is likely to moderate.

Politics: Rajya sabha tangle will continue. 2015 trend of opposition finding its voice will improve and NDA front unity will continue to weaken.  

truthbetold wrote:CD,

If you say something worthwhile i can respond. only time gets you over the sulking. Take your time.

I do know what you mean by 'greatly.'  Are you implying I said India has progressed greatly in 18 months under modi?  You know , even for you, that would be stretching it a bit far.  
 

truthbetold wrote:
CD: "Why don't you or would you go back and live there?"

That is a very offensive comment at many levels. It reveals your deep frustration and anger.

What gives you the idea that I plan to go back to India whatever may be its economic situation?  
 

truthbetold wrote:CD,

You should have the decency to admit your errors.  

Whatever reason we came here , we made a life here and are raising families.  We are not nomads. We may have many interests in US and outside. We may show relatively more interest in India, as our country of origin.  

Your implication that we are all in some economic refugee camp waiting for India to grow economically and leave when the grass gets greener on Indian side.  That implication shows poor judgement on your part.

truthbetold wrote:CD,

You should have the decency to admit your errors.  

Whatever reason we came here , we made a life here and are raising families.  We are not nomads. We may have many interests in US and outside. We may show relatively more interest in India, as our country of origin.  

Your implication that we are all in some economic refugee camp waiting for India to grow economically and leave when the grass gets greener on Indian side.  That implication shows poor judgement on your part.

confuzzled dude wrote:

truthbetold wrote:CD,

You should have the decency to admit your errors.  

Whatever reason we came here , we made a life here and are raising families.  We are not nomads. We may have many interests in US and outside. We may show relatively more interest in India, as our country of origin.  

Your implication that we are all in some economic refugee camp waiting for India to grow economically and leave when the grass gets greener on Indian side.  That implication shows poor judgement on your part.

No need to take it personally, that question was to everyone of us (including me).  Let me rephrase that question, If situation in India is better than the U.S. (Standard of living, pollution, traffic, wages etc) how many of NRIs living in the U.S., do you think will stay back in the U.S.?

truthbetold wrote:

confuzzled dude wrote:

truthbetold wrote:CD,

You should have the decency to admit your errors.  

Whatever reason we came here , we made a life here and are raising families.  We are not nomads. We may have many interests in US and outside. We may show relatively more interest in India, as our country of origin.  

Your implication that we are all in some economic refugee camp waiting for India to grow economically and leave when the grass gets greener on Indian side.  That implication shows poor judgement on your part.

No need to take it personally, that question was to everyone of us (including me).  Let me rephrase that question, If situation in India is better than the U.S. (Standard of living, pollution, traffic, wages etc) how many of NRIs living in the U.S., do you think will stay back in the U.S.?

CD,

You were angry when you wrote that.

Let us move on.  Many of us made new commitments in life after migration.  Closest example is Chinese Americans.  How many of them moved back?