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Fake Hopes

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Post by The Absolute Zero Fri Dec 02, 2011 11:30 am

http://money.cnn.com/2011/12/02/news/economy/jobs_report_unemployment/index.htm?hpt=hp_t1

In Nov they added more jobs? And by Xmas they will add more of course. What happens then? The holiday season will be over and they lay off all these people and we are back to 11% unemp? Why does the news people always project this kind of extreme things?

Recently Obama (well an year ago actually) cut the federal work force's inflational increases. Nobody knew how long they would last - may be an year, year by year or may be a few years. To get votes back may be they will remove this next year. Nobody knows. Yet when they show news, they say "these cuts will save x.y millions over 10 years." as if they last 10 years actually. And if gas price down by 10 cents they project as if this is some kind of national celebration; But the very next week gas price is back to 3.29.

Why play this sort of games with public? Reality is not very difficult thinig to imagine. Just look at the street where a dozen houses are on sale and watch the prices plummet. As for Gas this is the joke. The speculators sit at one corner and watch. When it is going down to 3.00, they think what is this? The public can live fine with 3.29 why is it going down? Let us bump it up!

Uppiliar swamiji plese shed some light (and your recently reported weight) on this. ;-)

The Absolute Zero

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Post by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Fri Dec 02, 2011 11:44 am

The Absolute Zero wrote:http://money.cnn.com/2011/12/02/news/economy/jobs_report_unemployment/index.htm?hpt=hp_t1

In Nov they added more jobs? And by Xmas they will add more of course. What happens then? The holiday season will be over and they lay off all these people and we are back to 11% unemp? Why does the news people always project this kind of extreme things?

Recently Obama (well an year ago actually) cut the federal work force's inflational increases. Nobody knew how long they would last - may be an year, year by year or may be a few years. To get votes back may be they will remove this next year. Nobody knows. Yet when they show news, they say "these cuts will save x.y millions over 10 years." as if they last 10 years actually. And if gas price down by 10 cents they project as if this is some kind of national celebration; But the very next week gas price is back to 3.29.

Why play this sort of games with public? Reality is not very difficult thinig to imagine. Just look at the street where a dozen houses are on sale and watch the prices plummet. As for Gas this is the joke. The speculators sit at one corner and watch. When it is going down to 3.00, they think what is this? The public can live fine with 3.29 why is it going down? Let us bump it up!

Uppiliar swamiji plese shed some light (and your recently reported weight) on this. ;-)

A number is a number and any number obtained by established game is a valid number to use.

I am nnot sure how a simple addition of 120,000 net jobs can bring down the rate from 9 to 8.6 - but, apparently the computer showed that number. So we have to accept it. I agree, the unemployment will rise again in January after the temporary hiring by the retail industry is fired. Of course, the upcoming increasing unemployment in February will be blamed on the impending severe winter (somewhere in the country) and the Santa Ana winds.

Marathadi-Saamiyaar

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Post by charvaka Fri Dec 02, 2011 12:26 pm

The Absolute Zero wrote:http://money.cnn.com/2011/12/02/news/economy/jobs_report_unemployment/index.htm?hpt=hp_t1

In Nov they added more jobs? And by Xmas they will add more of course. What happens then? The holiday season will be over and they lay off all these people and we are back to 11% unemp? Why does the news people always project this kind of extreme things?

Please read this from the article:

CNN wrote:Because the Labor Department adjusts its numbers to account for seasonal
trends, job growth in those industries is not necessarily because of
holiday hiring alone.

Unemployment numbers are adjusted for seasonal variations to avoid the problem you are talking about. Here is more detail: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasonal_adjustment.
charvaka
charvaka

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Post by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Fri Dec 02, 2011 2:29 pm

[quote="charvaka"]
The Absolute Zero wrote:http://money.cnn.com/2011/12/02/news/economy/jobs_report_unemployment/index.htm?hpt=hp_t1

Unemployment numbers are adjusted for seasonal variations to avoid the problem you are talking about. Here is more detail: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasonal_adjustment.

The keyword is ALONE... so there are other permanent factors, BUT the very high seasonal hiring also affects/fudges the numbers.

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