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Are dems celebrating too early?

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Post by truthbetold Fri Aug 12, 2016 8:26 pm

Hillary is leading Trump by 6 plus % in avg of avg polls. She is leading in most of all swing states. If election were held today, she will blow him away. 

But election is 80 plus days away. Debates are still to happen. E mail ,  clinton foundation, bengazi , etc etc are still out there.  

A major terrorist attack could swing the election Trump's way.

Can Trump win? It looks bleak. 

But there is too much time. Republicans can still put some logic in Trump's head and revive his campaign. Dole in 1996 was in a better position than Trump. 

If the percentages hold,  it proves a large section of white vote is logical  and realistic.

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Post by MaxEntropy_Man Fri Aug 12, 2016 8:33 pm

Yes
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Post by Idéfix Fri Aug 12, 2016 8:34 pm

It is certainly too early to celebrate. I plan to celebrate on November 8, not a day sooner. It is technically even possible that the RNC replaces Trump this month if he continues to self-immolate. They have good options, perhaps Pence or Kasich. And Hillary has plenty of weaknesses that can yet come to light.
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Post by truthbetold Fri Aug 12, 2016 8:42 pm

If RNC has the guts to replace Trump, almost any replacement will look far better.  For few weeks race will tighten.  Then it may go back old fashioned red vs  blue state battle.

One thing going for Trump, every american voter knows him and may even have an opinion about him.  So if email or terrorism thunder strikes Hillary, people could easily turn to Trump.  Hope that is not the way this election ends.

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Post by silvermani Fri Aug 12, 2016 9:10 pm

truthbetold wrote:If RNC has the guts to replace Trump, almost any replacement will look far better.  For few weeks race will tighten.  Then it may go back old fashioned red vs  blue state battle.

One thing going for Trump, every american voter knows him and may even have an opinion about him.  So if email or terrorism thunder strikes Hillary, people could easily turn to Trump.  Hope that is not the way this election ends.

Sorry, not gonna happen. The best RNC can do is find a good PR consultant to help him say the right things and swing things back in his favor. Remember, Brexit polls indicated stay till the last day and then what happened?
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Post by Idéfix Fri Aug 12, 2016 9:15 pm

Brexit polls were too close to call heading into referendum day.

Edit: and the result was a narrow margin, within the margin of error of most polls.


Last edited by Idéfix on Fri Aug 12, 2016 9:20 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by truthbetold Fri Aug 12, 2016 9:17 pm

Have you looked at the Brexit numbers? They were close and moved in a small range. Statistically Brexit was not a surprise.

It is the gamblers and financial professionals who said Brexit is not happening and got their teeth knocked out.

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