State of the election

by MaxEntropy_Man Mon Nov 07, 2016 6:29 pm

FL and NC seem to be turning Hillary's way slowly. If she loses MI or PA which Drumpf is targeting big time, she'll need one of FL or NC. NV and NH are the hardest to read. This is very much Hillary's election to lose. I am assuming at this point that OH and IA are lost causes.

by Idéfix Mon Nov 07, 2016 6:59 pm

My predictions:
OH and IA will turn orange.
NV and NH will remain blue, if by small margins.
MI, WI, VA and PA will all hold comfortably (more than 2 percentage points each).
FL will remain blue but will reelect Rubio. NC is a toss-up (both Senate and President). Clinton will win more than 300 electoral votes. Actual tally will depend on what happens in AZ, GA, and the district-level votes in ME and NE.

The networks will call the election for Clinton when the polls close in PA, with PA and FL in her column. Look for a call to be made soon after 8 pm Eastern. It will be pandemonium on the evening commute in the Bay Area tomorrow.

Dems will get to 50 in the Senate, but that will only be called much later in the night.

by truthbetold Mon Nov 07, 2016 7:17 pm

If Clinton loses MI, she lose the election. Because a loss in MI is not likely to happen with out other states moving in similar direction. She has to hold MI, MN, WI, and PA.

by MaxEntropy_Man Mon Nov 07, 2016 7:20 pm

truthbetold wrote:If Clinton loses MI, she lose the election. Because a loss in MI is not likely to happen with out other states moving in similar direction. She has to hold MI, MN, WI, and PA.

Not necessarily. I don't think PA and MI are that correlated. She can lose MI and still win it if she wins FL.

by Idéfix Mon Nov 07, 2016 10:23 pm

CNN is already in post mortem mode on the Trump campaign.

by MaxEntropy_Man Mon Nov 07, 2016 10:31 pm

Idéfix wrote:CNN is already in post mortem mode on the Trump campaign.

Wonder what autopsy report 2.0 will conclude. Orange is not the new black?

by southindian Tue Nov 08, 2016 8:46 am

7 PM EST Florida is key.

by Idéfix Tue Nov 08, 2016 10:10 am

MaxEntropy_Man wrote:
Idéfix wrote:CNN is already in post mortem mode on the Trump campaign.

Wonder what autopsy report 2.0 will conclude. Orange is not the new black?

This is what the base will take away:
Obama is responsible for Trump taking over their party.
Trump was a Trojan Horse sent in by the Clinton machine.
Mainstream media set up Trump during the primaries only to take him down in the general.
Trump wasn't extreme enough. He should have talked more about deportation force and punishment for abortion in the general.
Trump lost because of his character flaws, not because of his platform.

This is what the leadership will say:
We need to be more inclusive.
We can't win by relying just on older white people.
Latinos, African Americans and Asian Americans are all natural conservatives.

They are the party of other people's personal responsibility, so neither group will take any responsibility for nominating an unqualified racist, misogynistic, xenophobic, narcissistic, plutocratic sexual offender.

by MaxEntropy_Man Tue Nov 08, 2016 10:13 am

Idéfix wrote:
MaxEntropy_Man wrote:
Idéfix wrote:CNN is already in post mortem mode on the Trump campaign.

Wonder what autopsy report 2.0 will conclude. Orange is not the new black?

This is what the base will take away:
Obama is responsible for Trump taking over their party.
Trump was a Trojan Horse sent in by the Clinton machine.
Mainstream media set up Trump during the primaries only to take him down in the general.
Trump wasn't extreme enough. He should have talked more about deportation force and punishment for abortion in the general.
Trump lost because of his character flaws, not because of his platform.

This is what the leadership will say:
We need to be more inclusive.
We can't win by relying just on older white people.
Latinos, African Americans and Asian Americans are all natural conservatives.

They are the party of other people's personal responsibility, so neither group will take any responsibility for nominating an unqualified racist, misogynistic, xenophobic, narcissistic, plutocratic sexual offender.

or the decades-long dog whistle politics that led to it.

by garam-kuta Wed Nov 09, 2016 10:11 am

MaxEntropy_Man wrote:
Idéfix wrote:CNN is already in post mortem mode on the Trump campaign.

Wonder what autopsy report 2.0 will conclude. Orange is not the new black?

LOL

State of the election Trumpgetting-elected-is-not-what-we-meant-when-we-said-2851875

by Hellsangel Sun Nov 13, 2016 12:49 am

Idéfix wrote:
MaxEntropy_Man wrote:
Idéfix wrote:CNN is already in post mortem mode on the Trump campaign.

Wonder what autopsy report 2.0 will conclude. Orange is not the new black?

This is what the base will take away:
Obama is responsible for Trump taking over their party.
Trump was a Trojan Horse sent in by the Clinton machine.
Mainstream media set up Trump during the primaries only to take him down in the general.
Trump wasn't extreme enough. He should have talked more about deportation force and punishment for abortion in the general.
Trump lost because of his character flaws, not because of his platform.

This is what the leadership will say:
We need to be more inclusive.
We can't win by relying just on older white people.
Latinos, African Americans and Asian Americans are all natural conservatives.

They are the party of other people's personal responsibility, so neither group will take any responsibility for nominating an unqualified racist, misogynistic, xenophobic, narcissistic, plutocratic sexual offender.

Very satisfying to read this again.

by silvermani Sun Nov 13, 2016 1:43 am

Different strokes for different folks but the bubble headed thinking of the so called liberals, their smug self superiority, severe lack of empathy for the economically marginalized and utter contempt for anyone with a different opinion makes one feel like saying "serves you right!"

by Ponniyin Selvan Sun Nov 13, 2016 6:50 am

Hellsangel wrote:
Idéfix wrote:
MaxEntropy_Man wrote:
Idéfix wrote:CNN is already in post mortem mode on the Trump campaign.

Wonder what autopsy report 2.0 will conclude. Orange is not the new black?

This is what the base will take away:
Obama is responsible for Trump taking over their party.
Trump was a Trojan Horse sent in by the Clinton machine.
Mainstream media set up Trump during the primaries only to take him down in the general.
Trump wasn't extreme enough. He should have talked more about deportation force and punishment for abortion in the general.
Trump lost because of his character flaws, not because of his platform.

This is what the leadership will say:
We need to be more inclusive.
We can't win by relying just on older white people.
Latinos, African Americans and Asian Americans are all natural conservatives.

They are the party of other people's personal responsibility, so neither group will take any responsibility for nominating an unqualified racist, misogynistic, xenophobic, narcissistic, plutocratic sexual offender.

Very satisfying to read this again.

Come'on folks, No rubbing of salt in the wounds..

by Guest Sun Nov 13, 2016 8:09 am

The irony in all this smug-libby conversation is that the onus of becoming more understanding is on the liberals. They are the one being told to understand and respect rural or conservative people. Not once have I seen an appeal to the rural people to understand and respect the liberals. When liberals ask for this they are labeled as smug. the people who are leading this 'liberals need to drop their superiority' campaign probably know very well that if there is any chance of one group of being more tolerant of the other, it's the liberals not the rural conservative folks. Then, they can ask nicely, no? Why shame them into it?

by silvermani Sun Nov 13, 2016 10:38 am

Ponniyin Selvan wrote:
Hellsangel wrote:
Idéfix wrote:
MaxEntropy_Man wrote:
Idéfix wrote:CNN is already in post mortem mode on the Trump campaign.

Wonder what autopsy report 2.0 will conclude. Orange is not the new black?

This is what the base will take away:
Obama is responsible for Trump taking over their party.
Trump was a Trojan Horse sent in by the Clinton machine.
Mainstream media set up Trump during the primaries only to take him down in the general.
Trump wasn't extreme enough. He should have talked more about deportation force and punishment for abortion in the general.
Trump lost because of his character flaws, not because of his platform.

This is what the leadership will say:
We need to be more inclusive.
We can't win by relying just on older white people.
Latinos, African Americans and Asian Americans are all natural conservatives.

They are the party of other people's personal responsibility, so neither group will take any responsibility for nominating an unqualified racist, misogynistic, xenophobic, narcissistic, plutocratic sexual offender.

Very satisfying to read this again.

Come'on folks, No rubbing of salt in the wounds..

Lol, that's a tactic which one of the smug ch libs tried first post election and ironically, it blew up in his face spectacularly. You sow what you reap.

by Idéfix Mon Nov 14, 2016 1:53 pm

Hellsangel wrote:
Idéfix wrote:
MaxEntropy_Man wrote:
Idéfix wrote:CNN is already in post mortem mode on the Trump campaign.

Wonder what autopsy report 2.0 will conclude. Orange is not the new black?

This is what the base will take away:
Obama is responsible for Trump taking over their party.
Trump was a Trojan Horse sent in by the Clinton machine.
Mainstream media set up Trump during the primaries only to take him down in the general.
Trump wasn't extreme enough. He should have talked more about deportation force and punishment for abortion in the general.
Trump lost because of his character flaws, not because of his platform.

This is what the leadership will say:
We need to be more inclusive.
We can't win by relying just on older white people.
Latinos, African Americans and Asian Americans are all natural conservatives.

They are the party of other people's personal responsibility, so neither group will take any responsibility for nominating an unqualified racist, misogynistic, xenophobic, narcissistic, plutocratic sexual offender.

Very satisfying to read this again.

I am glad you enjoyed it. Here are my predictions for how the GOP will be treating all this by 2018. By then it will be abundantly clear that the God Emperor has no clothes (or religion), even to his ardent fans. At that point, they will need to cut bait.

This is what the base will take away:
Obama is responsible for Trump taking over their party.
~~Trump was a Trojan Horse sent in by the Clinton machine.~~
Mainstream media ~~set up Trump during the primaries only to take him down in the general~~ took him down with their negativity and liberal bias.
Trump wasn't ~~extreme~~ conservative enough. He should have ~~talked more about~~ implemented deportation force and punishment for abortion ~~in the general~~.
Trump lost his way because of his character flaws, not because of his platform.

This is what the leadership will say:
We don't need to be more inclusive.
We ~~can't~~ can win by relying just on older white people. Older white people can still win us elections, as long as we can keep the "poorly educated" people's resentment of the educated alive and well. And depress turnout among young people through alt-right conspiracy theories.
Latinos, African Americans and Asian Americans are all natural conservatives.

by silvermani Thu Apr 19, 2018 8:07 pm

CH illiberals - wrong then, wrong now and in the future.

by silvermani Fri Apr 20, 2018 10:19 pm

Bump - to showcase smug douchebaggery and ignorance of CHilliberals.

by Idéfix Sun Apr 22, 2018 12:09 am

Still desperately clinging on to the glory days of 2016, I see.

by silvermani Sun Apr 22, 2018 3:37 am

Still desperately refusing to grow some humility after the disaster that was election 2016 I see.

by silvermani Fri Apr 27, 2018 9:26 pm

Bump. Brilliant, accurate analysis can be found in this thread. /s

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