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Follow votecastr on slate - Real time projections
by MaxEntropy_Man Tue Nov 08, 2016 10:53 am
http://www.slate.com/votecastr_election_day_turnout_tracker.html
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Re: Follow votecastr on slate - Real time projections
by Idéfix Tue Nov 08, 2016 11:29 am
This is an interesting experiment. Nate Silver was rather skeptical about this on the 538 podcast yesterday, while his politics editor was more encouraging.
One more thing to obsess about as the day progresses!
One more thing to obsess about as the day progresses!
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Re: Follow votecastr on slate - Real time projections
by MaxEntropy_Man Tue Nov 08, 2016 11:32 am
Idéfix wrote:This is an interesting experiment. Nate Silver was rather skeptical about this on the 538 podcast yesterday, while his politics editor was more encouraging.
One more thing to obsess about as the day progresses!
Skeptical why? Because it is not going to give an accurate picture or that it will influence voter behavior?
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Re: Follow votecastr on slate - Real time projections
by Idéfix Tue Nov 08, 2016 11:35 am
The former.MaxEntropy_Man wrote:Idéfix wrote:This is an interesting experiment. Nate Silver was rather skeptical about this on the 538 podcast yesterday, while his politics editor was more encouraging.
One more thing to obsess about as the day progresses!
Skeptical why? Because it is not going to give an accurate picture or that it will influence voter behavior?
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Re: Follow votecastr on slate - Real time projections
by MaxEntropy_Man Tue Nov 08, 2016 1:45 pm
Interesting. At 1:30 PM EDT Hillary leads in all the states votecastr is tracking.
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Re: Follow votecastr on slate - Real time projections
by Idéfix Tue Nov 08, 2016 2:21 pm
Florida is the most remarkable. If you filter to just "Trump strongholds," Clinton has already crossed 95% of Obama's 2012 turnout there. Trump is still at 89% of Romney's 2012 turnout in his strongholds.
In "Clintons strongholds," Clinton is up to 90% and Trump to 85% of their respective party's turnouts in 2012.
Obama won Florida in 2012 by less than one percentage point. It looks like Clinton is running ahead of Obama at this point in Florida.
In "Clintons strongholds," Clinton is up to 90% and Trump to 85% of their respective party's turnouts in 2012.
Obama won Florida in 2012 by less than one percentage point. It looks like Clinton is running ahead of Obama at this point in Florida.
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Re: Follow votecastr on slate - Real time projections
by MaxEntropy_Man Tue Nov 08, 2016 2:25 pm
Idéfix wrote:Florida is the most remarkable. If you filter to just "Trump strongholds," Clinton has already crossed 95% of Obama's 2012 turnout there. Trump is still at 89% of Romney's 2012 turnout in his strongholds.
In "Clintons strongholds," Clinton is up to 90% and Trump to 85% of their respective party's turnouts in 2012.
Obama won Florida in 2012 by less than one percentage point. It looks like Clinton is running ahead of Obama at this point in Florida.
Not surprising. There were early reports of massive hispanic turnout.
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Re: Follow votecastr on slate - Real time projections
by southindian Tue Nov 08, 2016 3:43 pm
Slate numbers are voter turnouts for each party and they could vote either way. But that margin of error should be for both parties. Looks like by end of day today, every Floridian will cast a vote in this elections.
Considering that, this is looking to be very promising for the democrats.
Considering that, this is looking to be very promising for the democrats.
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Re: Follow votecastr on slate - Real time projections
by Idéfix Tue Nov 08, 2016 3:49 pm
Yes, this is one of the main reasons this is not too reliable. Party registration and demographic parameters are not perfect predictors of wwho someone will vote for.southindian wrote:Slate numbers are voter turnouts for each party and they could vote either way. But that margin of error should be for both parties. Looks like by end of day today, every Floridian will cast a vote in this elections.
Considering that, this is looking to be very promising for the democrats.
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Re: Follow votecastr on slate - Real time projections
by MaxEntropy_Man Tue Nov 08, 2016 4:06 pm
Idéfix wrote:Yes, this is one of the main reasons this is not too reliable. Party registration and demographic parameters are not perfect predictors of wwho someone will vote for.southindian wrote:Slate numbers are voter turnouts for each party and they could vote either way. But that margin of error should be for both parties. Looks like by end of day today, every Floridian will cast a vote in this elections.
Considering that, this is looking to be very promising for the democrats.
Fair enough. The numbers in IA and OH are probably worse for Clinton given the number of working class dems who have probably voted for Trump. The numbers in NH and CO are probably better. PA could go either way. FL is probably about right given the high turnout of hispanics.
**Worse and better compared to votecastr predicitons.
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Re: Follow votecastr on slate - Real time projections
by confuzzled dude Tue Nov 08, 2016 4:13 pm
I hear that over 6 millions voted early in FL. Does it mean that only less than 2 million voted thus far, today?
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Re: Follow votecastr on slate - Real time projections
by Idéfix Tue Nov 08, 2016 5:49 pm
Their FL updates seem to be stuck for over an hour now.
In the meanwhile, some good signs from exit polls. 54% of respondents oppose a border wall, 40% support it.
In the meanwhile, some good signs from exit polls. 54% of respondents oppose a border wall, 40% support it.
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Re: Follow votecastr on slate - Real time projections
by Idéfix Tue Nov 08, 2016 5:53 pm
In FL, minorities were 33% of exit poll sample in 2012. Now it is 39%. If this holds through the close of polls at 8 pm Eastern, Clinton is home.
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Re: Follow votecastr on slate - Real time projections
by truthbetold Tue Nov 08, 2016 9:18 pm
Trump leading in FL with Pan Handle (Republicans) and Broward (Democratic).
NC _ Clinton leading.
Virginia - Trump (rural counties) leading.
NC _ Clinton leading.
Virginia - Trump (rural counties) leading.
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