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2012 vs. 2008: comparing the two presidential races

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2012 vs. 2008: comparing the two presidential races Empty 2012 vs. 2008: comparing the two presidential races

Post by Idéfix Tue Aug 07, 2012 12:42 pm

RealClearPolitics has a comparison of the Obama-McCain race with the Obama-Romney race now. Three months from Election Day, this is how it looks. The number being shown is the RCP polling average, which incorporates numbers from all major pollsters.

2012 vs. 2008: comparing the two presidential races 2012_v10

The 2008 race was a lot more volatile, with larger swings in both directions. There was a period in March, as McCain had wrapped up the nomination and Obama was still slugging it out with Clinton, when McCain led Obama by a point or two. This time round, the race is less volatile, and Obama has hung on to a slim lead throughout. The real game changers in the 2008 race came in September, and that may well be the case for this race as well.
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2012 vs. 2008: comparing the two presidential races Empty Re: 2012 vs. 2008: comparing the two presidential races

Post by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Tue Aug 07, 2012 1:06 pm

panini press wrote:RealClearPolitics has a comparison of the Obama-McCain race with the Obama-Romney race now. Three months from Election Day, this is how it looks. The number being shown is the RCP polling average, which incorporates numbers from all major pollsters.

2012 vs. 2008: comparing the two presidential races 2012_v10

The 2008 race was a lot more volatile, with larger swings in both directions. There was a period in March, as McCain had wrapped up the nomination and Obama was still slugging it out with Clinton, when McCain led Obama by a point or two. This time round, the race is less volatile, and Obama has hung on to a slim lead throughout. The real game changers in the 2008 race came in September, and that may well be the case for this race as well.

It is not easy to REPLACE a sitting president. the challenger needs to have more than 8 to 10% lead to be reasonably sure of an upset. So unless some really bad things happen before Nov, Romney is toast.

mark this post...and forget all the surveys.

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