China's real estate

southindian wrote:Non-existing supply for non-existent demand.

Will have to see how big China's real estate bubble can become.

truthbetold wrote:Indian real estate in big cities outstrips inflation in the long run. In India the real estate slogan is location,  long term,  location and longterm.

Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote:

truthbetold wrote:Indian real estate in big cities outstrips inflation in the long run. In India the real estate slogan is location,  long term,  location and longterm.

The problem with the real estate in India is the issue of control. The apts lose its "quality" in 10 to 15 years. Unless you have "close" and trusting brothers/sisters/parents, the risk of bad tenants, squatters, are high. That too, if people know that the owners are NRIs, the risk is very high. I know of "quality" complexes 30 to 50% locked up. All bought by NRIs as investment or people who work overseas long term projects.

truthbetold wrote:

Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote:

truthbetold wrote:Indian real estate in big cities outstrips inflation in the long run. In India the real estate slogan is location,  long term,  location and longterm.

The problem with the real estate in India is the issue of control. The apts lose its "quality" in 10 to 15 years.  Unless you have "close" and trusting brothers/sisters/parents, the risk of bad tenants, squatters, are high. That too, if people know that the owners are NRIs, the risk is very high. I know of "quality" complexes 30 to 50% locked up. All bought by NRIs as investment or people who work overseas long term projects.

Yes. Safety is a major concern. India could attract lot more investment in real estate if they improve the laws and help homeowners secure their property. But such trivialities are too much of a distraction for ruling elites.

Despite all the dangers and minefields,  if you do your homework and pay little more,  you can find good investments.

truthbetold wrote:Uppili,
Do not know much about Madras. I like the city for its unadulterated Indian quality. (Mumbai and Delhi seem confused between east and west).

Madras is good for now and 20 or 30 years from now. Stick to it.
Coimbatore grew leaps and bounds from the time I lived there.

Try Hyderabad now. Real estate is down. It will take 5 or more years but it will come back with a bang.

truthbetold wrote:Uppili,
Do not know much about Madras. I like the city for its unadulterated Indian quality. (Mumbai and Delhi seem confused between east and west).

Madras is good for now and 20 or 30 years from now. Stick to it.
Coimbatore grew leaps and bounds from the time I lived there.

Try Hyderabad now. Real estate is down. It will take 5 or more years but it will come back with a bang.

Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote:

truthbetold wrote:Indian real estate in big cities outstrips inflation in the long run. In India the real estate slogan is location,  long term,  location and longterm.

The problem with the real estate in India is the issue of control. The apts lose its "quality" in 10 to 15 years.  Unless you have "close" and trusting brothers/sisters/parents, the risk of bad tenants, squatters, are high. That too, if people know that the owners are NRIs, the risk is very high. I know of "quality" complexes 30 to 50% locked up. All bought by NRIs as investment or people who work overseas long term projects.

Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote:

southindian wrote:Non-existing supply for non-existent demand.

Will have to see how big China's real estate bubble can become.

I just saw that too..... India was pretty much on those lines...BUT, since it is mostly private-led, the banks, developers, and typical Indians NOT selling homes (not matter what) have eased that hard landing fears...But, still it will be very hard to make money of any investment in Indian real estate - given the black money, Re devaluation, Global Tax, lost investment revenue, risk of losing the apt., etc...

Propagandhi711 wrote:

truthbetold wrote:Uppili,
Do not know much about Madras. I like the city for its unadulterated Indian quality. (Mumbai and Delhi seem confused between east and west).

Madras is good for now and 20 or 30 years from now. Stick to it.
Coimbatore grew leaps and bounds from the time I lived there.

Try Hyderabad now. Real estate is down. It will take 5 or more years but it will come back with a bang.

I got some hyd real estate I can sell to you at a discount. what do you need? acres, plots, apt? near international airport, jubilee hills, rd#12, near ramoji studios???? where do you need?

Idéfix wrote:

Propagandhi711 wrote:

truthbetold wrote:Uppili,
Do not know much about Madras. I like the city for its unadulterated Indian quality. (Mumbai and Delhi seem confused between east and west).

Madras is good for now and 20 or 30 years from now. Stick to it.
Coimbatore grew leaps and bounds from the time I lived there.

Try Hyderabad now. Real estate is down. It will take 5 or more years but it will come back with a bang.

I got some hyd real estate I can sell to you at a discount. what do you need? acres, plots, apt? near international airport, jubilee hills, rd#12, near ramoji studios???? where do you need?

I am on the market to buy. Send me details if you are really looking for a buyer.

southindian wrote:

Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote:

southindian wrote:Non-existing supply for non-existent demand.

Will have to see how big China's real estate bubble can become.

I just saw that too..... India was pretty much on those lines...BUT, since it is mostly private-led, the banks, developers, and typical Indians NOT selling homes (not matter what) have eased that hard landing fears...But, still it will be very hard to make money of any investment in Indian real estate - given the black money, Re devaluation, Global Tax, lost investment revenue, risk of losing the apt., etc...

Amazing to see miles and miles of residential and office buildings and not one occupied. KFC, Apple and McDonald tags in malls just to show they could be there, but companies never asked for space.

Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote:

southindian wrote:

Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote:

southindian wrote:Non-existing supply for non-existent demand.

Will have to see how big China's real estate bubble can become.

I just saw that too..... India was pretty much on those lines...BUT, since it is mostly private-led, the banks, developers, and typical Indians NOT selling homes (not matter what) have eased that hard landing fears...But, still it will be very hard to make money of any investment in Indian real estate - given the black money, Re devaluation, Global Tax, lost investment revenue, risk of losing the apt., etc...

Amazing to see miles and miles of residential and office buildings and not one occupied. KFC, Apple and McDonald tags in malls just to show they could be there, but companies never asked for space.

What is interesting is that the billionaire woman - who does ONLY office high rises - indicating only that sector has market. Also the biggest builder in China - who specializes in residential - claiming that the bubble can burst.

Here is the 60 min segment on Chinese real estate...the next coming.

goodcitizn wrote:
Yes, I watched 60 Minutes last night. Miles and miles of unoccupied, newly-built high-risers. The builders/investors are in serious trouble unless foreign investments start pouring in to lift the income level of the general population that cannot currently afford the cost of these luxury condos. The entire stretch is like a ghost city. Even many commercial buildings have been abandoned for lack of capital after they have been built half way. This bubble is bound to burst unless the Chinese government intervenes and finds ways to subsidize.

truthbetold wrote:Prop
i influenced several of my cousins who want sell in hyd and buy land in andhra . now they see them as two different decisions.
the current troubled situation is not a good time to sell. lot of weak hands will let
go. hyd will be a strong economy with andhra people thriving. It won't be like 90s or 2000s. But hyd economy will thrive.
Charvaka and i will be there to backstop any major drop. haha!

confuzzled dude wrote:

goodcitizn wrote:
Yes, I watched 60 Minutes last night. Miles and miles of unoccupied, newly-built high-risers. The builders/investors are in serious trouble unless foreign investments start pouring in to lift the income level of the general population that cannot currently afford the cost of these luxury condos. The entire stretch is like a ghost city. Even many commercial buildings have been abandoned for lack of capital after they have been built half way. This bubble is bound to burst unless the Chinese government intervenes and finds ways to subsidize.

So China's grip on America's b@$$s will be further tightened; I mean I'm trying assess the impact of this on America's economy.

confuzzled dude wrote:

goodcitizn wrote:
Yes, I watched 60 Minutes last night. Miles and miles of unoccupied, newly-built high-risers. The builders/investors are in serious trouble unless foreign investments start pouring in to lift the income level of the general population that cannot currently afford the cost of these luxury condos. The entire stretch is like a ghost city. Even many commercial buildings have been abandoned for lack of capital after they have been built half way. This bubble is bound to burst unless the Chinese government intervenes and finds ways to subsidize.

So China's grip on America's b@$$s will be further tightened; I mean I'm trying assess the impact of this on America's economy.

Propagandhi711 wrote:and egalitarian PC statements aside, there isnt a leader in telangana that is capable of wooing industries away from other states that are growing gangbusters. and yes in the absence of strong leadership, you need personalities that can woo/cajole/charm large industries to setup shop and T sure as shit doesnt have them. 

Propagandhi711 wrote:

confuzzled dude wrote:

goodcitizn wrote:
Yes, I watched 60 Minutes last night. Miles and miles of unoccupied, newly-built high-risers. The builders/investors are in serious trouble unless foreign investments start pouring in to lift the income level of the general population that cannot currently afford the cost of these luxury condos. The entire stretch is like a ghost city. Even many commercial buildings have been abandoned for lack of capital after they have been built half way. This bubble is bound to burst unless the Chinese government intervenes and finds ways to subsidize.

So China's grip on America's b@$$s will be further tightened; I mean I'm trying assess the impact of this on America's economy.

nothing. china's got no other game in town other than holding US debt in watered down US currency and keep buying whatever little basic materials (oil, copper, coal etc) with US currency. what is the alternative, euro or yen? and they'll only get weaker industrially, it's too long to go into in this thread. 

it must hurt you deeply to hear that US is back at the helm again but it looks like the sheriff is still alive and is still a swinging dick.

Idéfix wrote:

Propagandhi711 wrote:and egalitarian PC statements aside, there isnt a leader in telangana that is capable of wooing industries away from other states that are growing gangbusters. and yes in the absence of strong leadership, you need personalities that can woo/cajole/charm large industries to setup shop and T sure as shit doesnt have them. 

This exact statement could have been made about all of Andhra Pradesh before 1995. And it would have been true. Until Naidu/Nitish/Modi/Chauhan showed up and started making noises about attracting investors, those states had no one to do that for them. 


My read on Hyderabad is that it has been one of India's largest cities for more than fifty years before AP was formed, and it will continue to play that role even if AP is bifurcated. The basic factors of the Telugus' overinvestment in engineering / IT education, strong educational institutions, presence of large-scale industry, and a cosmopolitan (in the Indian context) culture are not going to disappear any time soon. These factors will make it more attractive even for Seemandhra businessmen to do business in Hyderabad than in the smaller cities of SA. 


IMO, the current fears about Hyderabad as an investment destination are similar to fears about Bombay as a destination in the 1960s. Any Gujaratis who sold in Bombay in the early '60s regretted those decisions as Bombay continued to be the largest and most prosperous city in the erstwhile Bombay state -- even as other cities like Ahmedabad closed the gap with Bombay. 

confuzzled dude wrote:

Propagandhi711 wrote:

confuzzled dude wrote:

goodcitizn wrote:
Yes, I watched 60 Minutes last night. Miles and miles of unoccupied, newly-built high-risers. The builders/investors are in serious trouble unless foreign investments start pouring in to lift the income level of the general population that cannot currently afford the cost of these luxury condos. The entire stretch is like a ghost city. Even many commercial buildings have been abandoned for lack of capital after they have been built half way. This bubble is bound to burst unless the Chinese government intervenes and finds ways to subsidize.

So China's grip on America's b@$$s will be further tightened; I mean I'm trying assess the impact of this on America's economy.

nothing. china's got no other game in town other than holding US debt in watered down US currency and keep buying whatever little basic materials (oil, copper, coal etc) with US currency. what is the alternative, euro or yen? and they'll only get weaker industrially, it's too long to go into in this thread. 

it must hurt you deeply to hear that US is back at the helm again but it looks like the sheriff is still alive and is still a swinging dick.

*ahem* who gets credit for the turnaround, if any, Dubya?

Idéfix wrote:

Propagandhi711 wrote:and egalitarian PC statements aside, there isnt a leader in telangana that is capable of wooing industries away from other states that are growing gangbusters. and yes in the absence of strong leadership, you need personalities that can woo/cajole/charm large industries to setup shop and T sure as shit doesnt have them. 

This exact statement could have been made about all of Andhra Pradesh before 1995. And it would have been true. Until Naidu/Nitish/Modi/Chauhan showed up and started making noises about attracting investors, those states had no one to do that for them. 


My read on Hyderabad is that it has been one of India's largest cities for more than fifty years before AP was formed, and it will continue to play that role even if AP is bifurcated. The basic factors of the Telugus' overinvestment in engineering / IT education, strong educational institutions, presence of large-scale industry, and a cosmopolitan (in the Indian context) culture are not going to disappear any time soon. These factors will make it more attractive even for Seemandhra businessmen to do business in Hyderabad than in the smaller cities of SA. 


IMO, the current fears about Hyderabad as an investment destination are similar to fears about Bombay as a destination in the 1960s. Any Gujaratis who sold in Bombay in the early '60s regretted those decisions as Bombay continued to be the largest and most prosperous city in the erstwhile Bombay state -- even as other cities like Ahmedabad closed the gap with Bombay. 

Propagandhi711 wrote:

confuzzled dude wrote:

Propagandhi711 wrote:

confuzzled dude wrote:

goodcitizn wrote:
Yes, I watched 60 Minutes last night. Miles and miles of unoccupied, newly-built high-risers. The builders/investors are in serious trouble unless foreign investments start pouring in to lift the income level of the general population that cannot currently afford the cost of these luxury condos. The entire stretch is like a ghost city. Even many commercial buildings have been abandoned for lack of capital after they have been built half way. This bubble is bound to burst unless the Chinese government intervenes and finds ways to subsidize.

So China's grip on America's b@$$s will be further tightened; I mean I'm trying assess the impact of this on America's economy.

nothing. china's got no other game in town other than holding US debt in watered down US currency and keep buying whatever little basic materials (oil, copper, coal etc) with US currency. what is the alternative, euro or yen? and they'll only get weaker industrially, it's too long to go into in this thread. 

it must hurt you deeply to hear that US is back at the helm again but it looks like the sheriff is still alive and is still a swinging dick.

*ahem* who gets credit for the turnaround, if any, Dubya?

euro zone implosion due to their socialist nirvanas collapsing, property bubble bursting etc. effects of unwinding of financial bubble created by cheap credit, end of commodity super cycle etc etc. also obama's message of hope and change.

PS: can you wapo jockeys seriously claim that obama's policies in some way caused US to get back on top again?

Idéfix wrote:

Propagandhi711 wrote:

confuzzled dude wrote:

Propagandhi711 wrote:

confuzzled dude wrote:So China's grip on America's b@$$s will be further tightened; I mean I'm trying assess the impact of this on America's economy.

nothing. china's got no other game in town other than holding US debt in watered down US currency and keep buying whatever little basic materials (oil, copper, coal etc) with US currency. what is the alternative, euro or yen? and they'll only get weaker industrially, it's too long to go into in this thread. 

it must hurt you deeply to hear that US is back at the helm again but it looks like the sheriff is still alive and is still a swinging dick.

*ahem* who gets credit for the turnaround, if any, Dubya?

euro zone implosion due to their socialist nirvanas collapsing, property bubble bursting etc. effects of unwinding of financial bubble created by cheap credit, end of commodity super cycle etc etc. also obama's message of hope and change.

PS: can you wapo jockeys seriously claim that obama's policies in some way caused US to get back on top again?

Yeah, anybody but Obama. Never mind that we were starting at nothing short of our own implosion into 1930s style great depression when Obama was elected, and his team did remarkable job of pulling back from the very brink.

confuzzled dude wrote:Ones that got on board during peak are screwed, there is no upside for them but I doubt if prices will ever go down to pre-hitech city levels. At the same time I'm afraid road to recovery is a long one, will take a decade or even longer, as   investors turn their immediate attention to SeemAndhra capital as well as seemAndhraites migration to Hyd will slowdown.

Propagandhi711 wrote:

Idéfix wrote:

Propagandhi711 wrote:

confuzzled dude wrote:

Propagandhi711 wrote:nothing. china's got no other game in town other than holding US debt in watered down US currency and keep buying whatever little basic materials (oil, copper, coal etc) with US currency. what is the alternative, euro or yen? and they'll only get weaker industrially, it's too long to go into in this thread. 

it must hurt you deeply to hear that US is back at the helm again but it looks like the sheriff is still alive and is still a swinging dick.

*ahem* who gets credit for the turnaround, if any, Dubya?

euro zone implosion due to their socialist nirvanas collapsing, property bubble bursting etc. effects of unwinding of financial bubble created by cheap credit, end of commodity super cycle etc etc. also obama's message of hope and change.

PS: can you wapo jockeys seriously claim that obama's policies in some way caused US to get back on top again?

Yeah, anybody but Obama. Never mind that we were starting at nothing short of our own implosion into 1930s style great depression when Obama was elected, and his team did remarkable job of pulling back from the very brink.

 what did they do? I mean the fed isnt part of the administration, right?

Propagandhi711 wrote:

Idéfix wrote:

Propagandhi711 wrote:

truthbetold wrote:Uppili,
Do not know much about Madras. I like the city for its unadulterated Indian quality. (Mumbai and Delhi seem confused between east and west).

Madras is good for now and 20 or 30 years from now. Stick to it.
Coimbatore grew leaps and bounds from the time I lived there.

Try Hyderabad now. Real estate is down. It will take 5 or more years but it will come back with a bang.

I got some hyd real estate I can sell to you at a discount. what do you need? acres, plots, apt? near international airport, jubilee hills, rd#12, near ramoji studios???? where do you need?

I am on the market to buy. Send me details if you are really looking for a buyer.

 what are you looking for, specifically? will send a note

Idéfix wrote:

confuzzled dude wrote:Ones that got on board during peak are screwed, there is no upside for them but I doubt if prices will ever go down to pre-hitech city levels. At the same time I'm afraid road to recovery is a long one, will take a decade or even longer, as   investors turn their immediate attention to SeemAndhra capital as well as seemAndhraites migration to Hyd will slowdown.

Yes, those who bought at the peak will lose, and like you I can't imagine a return to 1990s prices. I think in the short term returns may be higher in whichever city gets picked as SA capital. But I doubt they will agree on a city in the next 4-5 years. And yes, migration of Seemandhra people to Hyderabad will slow down for sure, but I think in the long term, it will continue to be a net migration from SA to Hyderabad, rather than a migration of people of SA origin from Hyderabad to SA.

confuzzled dude wrote:

Idéfix wrote:

confuzzled dude wrote:Ones that got on board during peak are screwed, there is no upside for them but I doubt if prices will ever go down to pre-hitech city levels. At the same time I'm afraid road to recovery is a long one, will take a decade or even longer, as   investors turn their immediate attention to SeemAndhra capital as well as seemAndhraites migration to Hyd will slowdown.

Yes, those who bought at the peak will lose, and like you I can't imagine a return to 1990s prices. I think in the short term returns may be higher in whichever city gets picked as SA capital. But I doubt they will agree on a city in the next 4-5 years. And yes, migration of Seemandhra people to Hyderabad will slow down for sure, but I think in the long term, it will continue to be a net migration from SA to Hyderabad, rather than a migration of people of SA origin from Hyderabad to SA.

That will only prolong the catch-22 situation we have been in for the last 4-5 years. The sooner the issues are worked out the better for Hyd's bounce back. Like Propa said there is a lot of built property all around the city; everyone has been procrastinating on state bifurcation decision, delaying the decision on new capital won't help the situation, they will keep holding. Just as an example, I'm involved with a RE venture in Nizampet area that started in '07 can't get rid of it despite being ready to take 50% loss. Long term is relative in this case, could end up being a VERY long-away-term unless we see another bubble.