2/3 of voting is done in India, so where are the expected results?

by truthbetold Sat Apr 26, 2014 7:17 pm

This is a freaking long election process. They start on April 7 and go till may 12. Are there no sites outside India that can provide some information on voting patterns? If there are no such sites, it is actually a tribute to indian state that they can control news for such long time.

I heard some numbers through informal conversations. But found no way to verify them.

So I am going back to some numbers I wrote some time back in my cheat sheet:

NDA 200 +20.

Modi needs 50 more. Need support from BJD, JJ, and few others.

Or JJ leading united front. (all non BJP/non congress parties would support her including SP, Laloo, and BSP. Exception is DMK). JJ is not a direct threat to any of the regional sultans.
Mamata will not be supported by Left and may be not even by congress because she is from NI and could be a long term threat.

Modi or JJ? what do you think?

by Vakavaka Pakapaka Sat Apr 26, 2014 7:48 pm

If MT and Pappu come to know that JJ has a chance to become the PM, they will shift their smear campaign against her.

Pappu was virtually lying yesterday that Gujrat doesn't have a Lokayukta! He will lie that JJ is a murderer if he thinks that will turn her allies against.

CONs still have time to play their dirty games. So, we just have to wait until May 16th.

by truthbetold Sat Apr 26, 2014 7:50 pm

I think it is too late to lie to hurt JJ. I think TN is done. She is just finishing her last few days as CM.

by Guest Sat Apr 26, 2014 7:59 pm

Vakavaka Pakapaka wrote:If MT and Pappu come to know that JJ has a chance to become the PM, they will shift their smear campaign against her.

Pappu was virtually lying yesterday that Gujrat doesn't have a Lokayukta! He will lie that JJ is a murderer if he thinks that will turn her allies against.

CONs still have time to play their dirty games. So, we just have to wait until May 16th.

Gujarat got a Lokayukta only 3-4 months ago.

by Vakavaka Pakapaka Sat Apr 26, 2014 9:48 pm

Rashmun wrote:
Vakavaka Pakapaka wrote:If MT and Pappu come to know that JJ has a chance to become the PM, they will shift their smear campaign against her.

Pappu was virtually lying yesterday that Gujrat doesn't have a Lokayukta! He will lie that JJ is a murderer if he thinks that will turn her allies against.

CONs still have time to play their dirty games. So, we just have to wait until May 16th.

Gujarat got a Lokayukta only 3-4 months ago.

Before that, the CON-Governor blocked all suggestions from the Gujrat govt. She was also known to be involvec in corruption in Rajasthan.

Pappu clearly said that Gujrat doesn't have a Lokayukta. That is a lie.

by Guest Sat Apr 26, 2014 9:51 pm

Vakavaka Pakapaka wrote:
Rashmun wrote:
Vakavaka Pakapaka wrote:If MT and Pappu come to know that JJ has a chance to become the PM, they will shift their smear campaign against her.

Pappu was virtually lying yesterday that Gujrat doesn't have a Lokayukta! He will lie that JJ is a murderer if he thinks that will turn her allies against.

CONs still have time to play their dirty games. So, we just have to wait until May 16th.

Gujarat got a Lokayukta only 3-4 months ago.
Before that, the CON-Governor blocked all suggestions from the Gujrat govt. She was also known to be involvec in corruption in Rajasthan.

Pappu clearly said that Gujrat doesn't have a Lokayukta. That is a lie.

Rahul said that if Gujarat had a Lokayukta in the last ten years then Modi would have been in jail. I don't think he said Gujarat doesn't have a Lokayukta as of today.

by truthbetold Sun Apr 27, 2014 9:30 am

I just crunched numbers. Raw is going to lose his sleep.
for modi to be pm, he has to win above 40 in up and Congress has to be restricted to 90 or less. Otherwise it looks like jj.
My opinion is that this talk will gain momentum after next round of elections on April 30. By may 12, we will see more and more news about modi alternative.

by truthbetold Sun Apr 27, 2014 2:51 pm

State	Party	Seats won
(# of seats)	Party	Seats won	2014 NDA	2014 UPA	2014 third	2014 others
Andhra Pradesh	Indian National Congress	33		10
-42	Indian National Congress	33			10
Andhra Pradesh	Telugu Desam Party	6	12
-42	Telugu Desam Party	6
Andhra Pradesh	Telangana Rashtra Samithi	2			8
-42	Telangana Rashtra Samithi	2
Andhra Pradesh	All India Majlis e Ittehad Al Muslameen	1		1
-42	All India Majlis e Ittehad Al Muslameen	1

by truthbetold Sun Apr 27, 2014 2:55 pm

Such would not allow me to post the entire file. So I am breaking the expected results into smaller packets.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_general_election,_2009

Provides 2009 results data. I took that table and modified it to 2014 expected results. I aranged 2014 NDA under one column and so on. Towards the end I will include the totals.

I eliminated the states that were not modified but included them in final totals (ex: Goa).

Feel free to challenge and suggest alternate numbers.

by truthbetold Sun Apr 27, 2014 2:57 pm

Bihar	Janata Dal (United)	20
-40	Janata Dal (United)	20			4
Bihar	Bharatiya Janata Party	12
-40	Bharatiya Janata Party	12	20
Bihar	Rashtriya Janata Dal	4
-40	Rashtriya Janata Dal	4		12
Bihar	Indian National Congress	2		2
-40	Indian National Congress	2
Bihar	Independent	2
-40	Independent	2				2
Delhi (7)	Indian National Congress	7	5	1		1
Gujarat	Bharatiya Janata Party	15	20
-26	Bharatiya Janata Party	15
Gujarat	Indian National Congress	11		6
-26	Indian National Congress	11
Haryana	Indian National Congress	9	5	5
-10	Indian National Congress	9
Haryana	Haryana Janhit Congress	1
-10	Haryana Janhit Congress	1
Jharkhand	Bharatiya Janata Party	8	6
-14	Bharatiya Janata Party	8
Jharkhand	Jharkhand Mukti Morcha	2				2
-14	Jharkhand Mukti Morcha	2
Jharkhand	Indian National Congress	1		3
-14	Indian National Congress	1
Jharkhand	Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik)	1				1
-14	Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik)	1
Jharkhand	Independent	2
-14	Independent	2				2

by truthbetold Sun Apr 27, 2014 3:01 pm

Karnataka	Bharatiya Janata Party	19
28	Bharatiya Janata Party	19	9
Karnataka	Indian National Congress	6		16
-28	Indian National Congress	6
Karnataka	Janata Dal (Secular)	3			3
-28	Janata Dal (Secular)	3
Kerala	Indian National Congress	13
-20	Indian National Congress	13		10
Kerala	Left Democratic Front	4
-20	Left Democratic Front	4			7
Kerala	Indian Union Muslim League	2		2
-20	Indian Union Muslim League	2
Kerala	Kerala Congress (Mani)	1				1
-20	Kerala Congress (Mani)	1
Madhya Pradesh	Bharatiya Janata Party	16
-29	Bharatiya Janata Party	16	20
Madhya Pradesh	Indian National Congress	12		8
-29	Indian National Congress	12
Madhya Pradesh	Bahujan Samaj Party	1				1
-29	Bahujan Samaj Party	1
Maharashtra	Indian National Congress	17
-48	Indian National Congress	17		7
Maharashtra	Shiv Sena	11
-48	Shiv Sena	11	20
Maharashtra	Bharatiya Janata Party	9
-48	Bharatiya Janata Party	9	15
Maharashtra	Nationalist Congress Party	8		3
-48	Nationalist Congress Party	8
Maharashtra	Bahujan Vikas Aaghadi	1				1
-48	Bahujan Vikas Aaghadi	1
Maharashtra	Swabhimani Paksha	1				1
-48	Swabhimani Paksha	1
Maharashtra	Independent	1				1
-48	Independent	1

by truthbetold Sun Apr 27, 2014 3:03 pm

Orissa	Biju Janata Dal	14
-21	Biju Janata Dal	14	4		10
Orissa	Indian National Congress	6		6
-21	Indian National Congress	6
Orissa	Communist Party of India	1			1
-21	Communist Party of India	1
Punjab	Indian National Congress	8
-13	Indian National Congress	8		6
Punjab	Shiromani Akali Dal	4	6
-13	Shiromani Akali Dal	4
Punjab	Bharatiya Janata Party	1	1
-13	Bharatiya Janata Party	1
Rajasthan	Indian National Congress	20
-25	Indian National Congress	20		4
Rajasthan	Bharatiya Janata Party	4	20
-25	Bharatiya Janata Party	4
Rajasthan	Independent	1
-25	Independent	1				1
Tamil Nadu	Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam	18				7
-39	Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam	18
Tamil Nadu	All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam	9			25
-39	All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam	9
Tamil Nadu	Indian National Congress	8		3
-39	Indian National Congress	8
Tamil Nadu	Communist Party of India	1			1
-39	Communist Party of India	1
Tamil Nadu	Communist Party of India (Marxist)	1			1
-39	Communist Party of India (Marxist)	1
Tamil Nadu	Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam	1				1
-39	Marumalarchi Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam	1
Tamil Nadu	Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi	1				1
-39	Viduthalai Chiruthaigal Katchi	1
Uttar Pradesh	Samajwadi Party	23			18
-80	Samajwadi Party	23
Uttar Pradesh	Indian National Congress	21		15
-80	Indian National Congress	21
Uttar Pradesh	Bahujan Samaj Party	20			15
-80	Bahujan Samaj Party	20
Uttar Pradesh	Bharatiya Janata Party	10	25
-80	Bharatiya Janata Party	10
Uttar Pradesh	Rashtriya Lok Dal	5		5
-80	Rashtriya Lok Dal	5
Uttar Pradesh	Independent	1				2
-80	Independent	1

by truthbetold Sun Apr 27, 2014 3:05 pm

West Bengal	All India Trinamool Congress	19			29
-42	All India Trinamool Congress	19
West Bengal	Left Front	15			8
-42	Left Front	15
West Bengal	Indian National Congress	6		3
-42	Indian National Congress	6
West Bengal	Bharatiya Janata Party	1	1
-42	Bharatiya Janata Party	1
West Bengal	Socialist Unity Centre of India	1			1
-42	Socialist Unity Centre of India	1
		543	212	156	146	27

by truthbetold Sun Apr 27, 2014 3:13 pm

Ok. That completes the weekend project. Took me long to post it.

Once again: Column headings are
State (number of seats)
Party Name
2009 actual results
2014 NDA expected results
2014 UPA expected results
2014 Third front expected results
2014 Others - expected results (ex: YSRC , DMK)

Total of each column are given in the last row. Couple of numbers are to be updated but count is accurate otherwise. Feel free to point out errors.

These above numbers are based on publicly available information and view points expressed by such posters including myself.

by rawemotions Sun Apr 27, 2014 4:21 pm

truthbetold wrote:I just crunched numbers. Raw is going to lose his sleep.
for modi to be pm, he has to win above 40 in up and Congress has to be restricted to 90 or less. Otherwise it looks like jj.
My opinion is that this talk will gain momentum after next round of elections on April 30. By may 12, we will see more and more news about modi alternative.

Why should I lose my sleep ? I never believe any of the Opinion Polls anyway because I consider the sample size small for Indian population and demographic variation.

There is probably not much to be gained, by analyzing all these. The best thing is to wait for May 16th evening. Things would be known.

But if anyway you are doing some work on this, it would be much easier if you could post it in excel form. Also interesting to see what the last opinion poll said so that it can confirmed how wrong or right they were. Can't make much sense of text and columns here.

by rawemotions Sun Apr 27, 2014 4:31 pm

Vakavaka Pakapaka wrote:If MT and Pappu come to know that JJ has a chance to become the PM, they will shift their smear campaign against her.

Pappu was virtually lying yesterday that Gujrat doesn't have a Lokayukta! He will lie that JJ is a murderer if he thinks that will turn her allies against.

CONs still have time to play their dirty games. So, we just have to wait until May 16th.

I personally think Congress has made up its mind to not be in government directly.
Congress's complete strategy is to prevent NDA from forming government under Modi at any cost. If anybody feels this is not so, would like to hear/debate this as a separate topic.

Allegedly the congress strategy would be
a) Aim for a disparate set of parties to come together to form a post poll coalition,
with they providing outside support. Economy would become even worse, then
they can pull the rug (they will not do with openly, but foment trouble among partners withing the coalition)
b) If that does not work, form a coalition with they being in the government
c) If they cannot be a part of it in any form, agitate for a complete Third Front Government, with they promising not to rock the boat for a given set of years.
d) If NDA tries to wean any new allies, raise the bogey of Modi (through the allies) and agitate for some other BJP leader to be PM. The objective here is to destroy the unity in BJP.
e) If by a miracle, the NDA cobbles together a majority with or without Modi, anyway insult them by not attending the swearing in ceremony.

by truthbetold Sun Apr 27, 2014 4:37 pm

Raw
Excel file. I got one but could not post it here. It kept rejecting the post as too long. If any one had suggestions I would appreciate it.

by truthbetold Sun Apr 27, 2014 4:43 pm

Raw
In terms of opinion polls. I would actually go to Jan/early march as base line. My numbers above probably align with even though it is not in any way manipulated to. Match them.

You made a very good post on up numbers. I think polls from April included some outlandish claims from up that pushed numbers to 240 to 250.

However as you have argued earlier the few additional % points swing in the last few days will make a big difference. That is why opinion polls are good for directional prediction. And we need to wait till may 16.

by truthbetold Sun Apr 27, 2014 4:50 pm

Raw
In terms of the ability to pick few additional seats, here are some possibilities if stars are aligned properly:
up - 10 to 15
Ap - 5
Hindi belt other than up - 10 to 15
That is 0 to 35 range.
If nda gets to 230 they may have the momentum to cobble up a majority.

by rawemotions Sun Apr 27, 2014 5:35 pm

truthbetold wrote:Raw
In terms of the ability to pick few additional seats, here are some possibilities if stars are aligned properly:
up - 10 to 15
Ap - 5
Hindi belt other than up - 10 to 15
That is 0 to 35 range.
If nda gets to 230 they may have the momentum to cobble up a majority.

Are these additional seats on top of the Jan/Mar opinion Poll baseline ?

Can you post a summary (total seats) of your baseline, so that I do not have to look up all these columns for NDA,UPA and the rest ?

by rawemotions Sun Apr 27, 2014 5:52 pm

truthbetold wrote:Raw
In terms of the ability to pick few additional seats, here are some possibilities if stars are aligned properly:
up - 10 to 15
Ap - 5
Hindi belt other than up - 10 to 15
That is 0 to 35 range.
If nda gets to 230 they may have the momentum to cobble up a majority.

OK now I somewhat understand your columns etc..
A few comments

Orissa
Could be very interesting, media reports indicate a late surge for NDA and many Congress supporters moving over to NDA. This can increase the BJD's tally
because opposition votes gets split. But it is also possible that BJP picks a few.

UP
I would be very surprised if RLD gets 5 seats in UP.

WB:
Given that TMC has burnt bridges with NDA, BJP supporters could vote left to keep TMC away. Last Lok Sabha left got many votes from areas that have still not been inundated by Islamists from Bangladesh. If that happens, it could actually benefit the Left a little more.

TN
Another interesting state. I expect the DMK to get a little more due to Anti-DMK votes getting split between AIADMK and NDA. But it is also possible the NDA picks more than the two seats projected. This can happen if Alagiri surreptitiously backs NDA in South.

Bihar
RLD+Congress (UPA) could get more than what is projected.

by confuzzled dude Mon Apr 28, 2014 8:31 am

rawemotions wrote:
truthbetold wrote:Raw
In terms of the ability to pick few additional seats, here are some possibilities if stars are aligned properly:
up - 10 to 15
Ap - 5
Hindi belt other than up - 10 to 15
That is 0 to 35 range.
If nda gets to 230 they may have the momentum to cobble up a majority.
Are these additional seats on top of the Jan/Mar opinion Poll baseline ?

Can you post a summary (total seats) of your baseline, so that I do not have to look up all these columns for NDA,UPA and the rest ?

From what I hear they don't stand much chance in A.P (T is a gone case); but who knows, TRS or YSRC may decide to extend support to BJP to form government.

by truthbetold Mon Apr 28, 2014 8:57 am

Cd
what i heard is that bjp will ditch tdp if it can gain 15 more seats from ysrc and trs.
bjp will talk to tmc if there us a need and some chance of success.

by Guest Mon Apr 28, 2014 9:07 am

truthbetold wrote:Cd
what i heard is that bjp will ditch tdp if it can gain 15 more seats from ysrc and trs.
bjp will talk to tmc if there us a need and some chance of success.

BJP will talk to TMC even though TMC is calling Modi "butcher of Gujarat" and "architect of riots"? Does BJP have no shame?

http://www.ndtv.com/elections/article/election-2014/mamata-banerjee-calls-narendra-modi-architect-of-riots-says-his-gyan-not-needed-515205?pfrom=home-lateststories

by truthbetold Mon Apr 28, 2014 11:28 am

Rashmun wrote:
truthbetold wrote:Cd
what i heard is that bjp will ditch tdp if it can gain 15 more seats from ysrc and trs.
bjp will talk to tmc if there us a need and some chance of success.

BJP will talk to TMC even though TMC is calling Modi "butcher of Gujarat" and "architect of riots"? Does BJP have no shame?

http://www.ndtv.com/elections/article/election-2014/mamata-banerjee-calls-narendra-modi-architect-of-riots-says-his-gyan-not-needed-515205?pfrom=home-lateststories

you are right. bjp has no shame. they learned from the more shameless congress leader sonia. sonia joined forces with dmk who her party accused of conspiring with terrorists to kill her husband. sonia hit another low when she joined with shared power who split from congress based on sonia's foreign origins.

bjp is becoming as shameless and power hungry as sonia.

by Guest Mon Apr 28, 2014 11:37 am

truthbetold wrote:
Rashmun wrote:
truthbetold wrote:Cd
what i heard is that bjp will ditch tdp if it can gain 15 more seats from ysrc and trs.
bjp will talk to tmc if there us a need and some chance of success.

BJP will talk to TMC even though TMC is calling Modi "butcher of Gujarat" and "architect of riots"? Does BJP have no shame?

http://www.ndtv.com/elections/article/election-2014/mamata-banerjee-calls-narendra-modi-architect-of-riots-says-his-gyan-not-needed-515205?pfrom=home-lateststories

you are right. bjp has no shame. they learned from the more shameless congress leader sonia. when sonia joined forces with dmk who her party accused of conspiring with terrorists to kill her husband. sonia hit another low when she joined with shared power who split from congress based on sonia's foreign origins.

bjp is becoming as shameless and power hungry as sonia.

So u agree that BJP's claim that it is a "party with a difference" is a lie?

by truthbetold Mon Apr 28, 2014 11:47 am

Rash
bjp is a party with a difference but for reasons different than you are thinking of.

by Ponniyin Selvan Mon Apr 28, 2014 12:03 pm

truthbetold wrote:I think it is too late to lie to hurt JJ. I think TN is done. She is just finishing her last few days as CM.

Half your statement is right. JJ's wealth case is nearing completion and her conviction and sentencing is almost certain. In this case the onus is on her to prove how she acquired wealth (that amounts to Rs 5000 crore in today's value) when her salary was Rs 1 per month during the term. With the recent SC ruling, any member is disqualified immediately on conviction.

So you are right in saying that she is finishing her last few days as CM.

by truthbetold Mon Apr 28, 2014 12:07 pm

Ps
i meant she is going to 7 race course, Delhi.
this is nice twist to the election story.

by Ponniyin Selvan Mon Apr 28, 2014 12:12 pm

truthbetold wrote:Ps
i meant she is going to 7 race course, Delhi.
this is nice twist to the election story.

She is not going anywhere , with some luck she can escape jail. But it is more likely that she will meet Lalu's fate.

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