How you think China will react?

by sambarvada Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:43 pm

http://old.news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20110801/wl_afp/chinaunrestxinjianggovernment

by charvaka Mon Aug 01, 2011 4:22 pm

Good question. The Pakis think just because they took US money and gave it to terrorists to kill US soldiers and got away with that, they think they can pull the same trick on the Chinese. I don't think the Chinese will react the way the US has done. Over time, I suspect this will get more and more ugly. The only way the Chinese can keep their friendship with the Pakis is if they manage to grow Sinkiang economically to the point that the Muslim Uyghurs decide that living under Chinese rule is better than supporting terrorists trained in PoK.

by indophile Mon Aug 01, 2011 4:42 pm

charvaka wrote: The only way the Chinese can keep their friendship with the Pakis is if they manage to grow Sinkiang economically to the point that the Muslim Uyghurs decide that living under Chinese rule is better than supporting terrorists trained in PoK.

Economic well-being may not make a difference, e.g., muslims in England. Didn't some British muslims of Pakistani origin (born and raised in England) take pride in killing non-muslims by bombing some trains and crowded places in London? Even French muslims are not that different.

by charvaka Mon Aug 01, 2011 4:53 pm

indophile wrote:
charvaka wrote: The only way the Chinese can keep their friendship with the Pakis is if they manage to grow Sinkiang economically to the point that the Muslim Uyghurs decide that living under Chinese rule is better than supporting terrorists trained in PoK.

Economic well-being may not make a difference, e.g., muslims in England. Didn't some British muslims of Pakistani origin (born and raised in England) take pride in killing non-muslims by bombing some trains and crowded places in London? Even French muslims are not that different.

True, but those are Muslim descendants of people from Pakistan, where Islam has become very radicalized. My understanding of Uyghur culture is that they are not stridently Muslim... sort of like the Indonesians who are Muslims but are proud of their Hindu/Buddhist heritage and love the temples their ancestors built. Given Saudi petrodollars and some rigorous preaching of Mohammad's doctrine all that can be changed in a generation, but I don't think China will allow that to happen.

by Silhouette Mon Aug 01, 2011 4:54 pm

charvaka wrote:Good question. The Pakis think just because they took US money and gave it to terrorists to kill US soldiers and got away with that, they think they can pull the same trick on the Chinese. I don't think the Chinese will react the way the US has done. Over time, I suspect this will get more and more ugly. The only way the Chinese can keep their friendship with the Pakis is if they manage to grow Sinkiang economically to the point that the Muslim Uyghurs decide that living under Chinese rule is better than supporting terrorists trained in PoK.

You assume pakistan exercises plausible control over these camps (or their agendas) on its territories. In the absence of that, the question would be whether China would seek entry into Pakistan or attempt a midnight sneak-in similar to the US and how would Pakistan react to that.

by charvaka Mon Aug 01, 2011 4:57 pm

Silhouette wrote:
charvaka wrote:Good question. The Pakis think just because they took US money and gave it to terrorists to kill US soldiers and got away with that, they think they can pull the same trick on the Chinese. I don't think the Chinese will react the way the US has done. Over time, I suspect this will get more and more ugly. The only way the Chinese can keep their friendship with the Pakis is if they manage to grow Sinkiang economically to the point that the Muslim Uyghurs decide that living under Chinese rule is better than supporting terrorists trained in PoK.

You assume pakistan exercises plausible control over these camps (or their agendas) on its territories. In the absence of that, the question would be whether China would seek entry into Pakistan or attempt a midnight sneak-in similar to the US and how would Pakistan react to that.

My assumption is based on all the findings that keep trickling out of that country about the involvement of the ISI in these camps in Pakistani territory. At the very least ISI provides funding to terrorist camps. There is a reason the US didn't tell even the president of Pakistan that they were coming for Osama.

The question you raise is a good one. If China does a sneak attack, that would set up a very interesting dynamic. But my suspicion is that China will not do that at least in the near term, because that would strengthen India's hand.

by Silhouette Mon Aug 01, 2011 5:11 pm

I get it but it's still debatable whether the govn provides systematic support or is unable to control leaks to groups. Either way, the govn. would deny allegations and that alone could provoke China to demand US like privileges in Pakistan i.e. to let them in. So far I dont see that happening either but if it does, and eventually it may, that would be a strong marker of failure for Pakistan.

by artood2 Mon Aug 01, 2011 5:14 pm

China will just ask for a bigger piece of land.

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