Sitting on cash!!

by harharmahadev Tue Jun 24, 2014 9:37 am

Pulled out of NUGT and made a decent profit. I have a few munis, EPI and INXX. But most of it is in cash.

My intuition tells me that we are going to have a 10+% correction within the next month. I don't have any specific reason to believe it.

Let's say you are playing the outer table on roulette and betting on Red or Black. If you have 10 Reds in a row, you might be tempted to bet on Black; knowing fully well that the odds of Red or Black are 50/50 (ignoring the green for now). Basically, nature has a way of breaking the trend once people believe that it is fully established.

The market seems to be ignoring all the bad news and forging ahead. There hasn't been a 10+% correction for the longest time. Just as I can't find the reasons for the market to be hitting new highs every other day, I don't have a reason why it will hit new lows.

by Propagandhi711 Tue Jun 24, 2014 10:41 am

same here. I got substantial amount of cash sitting in 401k and outside accounts waiting to be deployed. am waiting for some event to happen which will cause a panic drop. want to start buying in when that happens, 10-15% is a good start

by b_A Tue Jun 24, 2014 12:15 pm

harharmahadev wrote:
Let's say you are playing the outer table on roulette and betting on Red or Black. If you have 10 Reds in a row, you might be tempted to bet on Black; knowing fully well that the odds of Red or Black are 50/50 (ignoring the green for now). Basically, nature has a way of breaking the trend once people believe that it is fully established.

What if the roulette table is rigged ? Then you will be hitting Reds as long as the manipulator allows it. That's what has been happening in stock market now. Don't fight the fed. I am fully invested.
In your S&P Index Poll , my choice was 70% chance for Index to be between 1950-2100 and 30 % for above 2100 by September.
Now the odds are looking better than that. It is probably 70 % for above 2100 and 30% chance for 1950-2100 now.

by nevada Tue Jun 24, 2014 1:24 pm

b_A wrote:
harharmahadev wrote:
Let's say you are playing the outer table on roulette and betting on Red or Black. If you have 10 Reds in a row, you might be tempted to bet on Black; knowing fully well that the odds of Red or Black are 50/50 (ignoring the green for now). Basically, nature has a way of breaking the trend once people believe that it is fully established.

What if the roulette table is rigged ? Then you will be hitting Reds as long as the manipulator allows it. That's what has been happening in stock market now. Don't fight the fed. I am fully invested.
In your S&P Index Poll , my choice was 70% chance for Index to be between 1950-2100 and 30 % for above 2100 by September.
Now the odds are looking better than that. It is probably 70 % for above 2100 and 30% chance for 1950-2100 now.

Good point. Instead of a melt down, a melt up seems to be happening in the markets. I am not fully invested, but all the gains I have made this year are invested. I am playing with the house's money and have nothing to lose.

by harharmahadev Tue Jun 24, 2014 2:12 pm

nevada wrote:
b_A wrote:
harharmahadev wrote:
Let's say you are playing the outer table on roulette and betting on Red or Black. If you have 10 Reds in a row, you might be tempted to bet on Black; knowing fully well that the odds of Red or Black are 50/50 (ignoring the green for now). Basically, nature has a way of breaking the trend once people believe that it is fully established.

What if the roulette table is rigged ? Then you will be hitting Reds as long as the manipulator allows it. That's what has been happening in stock market now. Don't fight the fed. I am fully invested.
In your S&P Index Poll , my choice was 70% chance for Index to be between 1950-2100 and 30 % for above 2100 by September.
Now the odds are looking better than that. It is probably 70 % for above 2100 and 30% chance for 1950-2100 now.

Good point. Instead of a melt down, a melt up seems to be happening in the markets. I am not fully invested, but all the gains I have made this year are invested. I am playing with the house's money and have nothing to lose.

Wheyyll (well in southern accent), ... anything is possible.

The 10-year US T-bond pays 2.5 - 2.75% despite reduced fed bond purchases. So, somebody is betting on the 'deflation'. Then on the other hand, somebody is betting on a rising US economy, which is typically inflationary.

by rawemotions Tue Jun 24, 2014 10:47 pm

harharmahadev wrote:Pulled out of NUGT and made a decent profit. I have a few munis, EPI and INXX. But most of it is in cash.

My intuition tells me that we are going to have a 10+% correction within the next month. I don't have any specific reason to believe it.

Let's say you are playing the outer table on roulette and betting on Red or Black. If you have 10 Reds in a row, you might be tempted to bet on Black; knowing fully well that the odds of Red or Black are 50/50 (ignoring the green for now). Basically, nature has a way of breaking the trend once people believe that it is fully established.

The market seems to be ignoring all the bad news and forging ahead. There hasn't been a 10+% correction for the longest time. Just as I can't find the reasons for the market to be hitting new highs every other day, I don't have a reason why it will hit new lows.

On NUGT, it is very good timing. Did you just know it would go down from 46 to 41 OR you just pulled out, when the trend reversed (basically breached near term support levels set previous day) ? From the timing of your post, it looks like you did the latter.

Since 17000 is a psychological number, everybody is looking at, will it reverse, only after it hits 17000 ?

It appears that you are predicting what is known in the market as "Secular Correction". Correction that happens due to the very nature of the market, rather than driven by any particular piece of bad news. But if that were to happen, any reason for it to be 10% ?

The NASDAQ (IXIC) near term support levels are around 8.36% lower compared to today's close. INX around 7.5% and DJIA around 5%.

OR
are you predicting that the Bull Market would stop and the support levels would be breached ?

by harharmahadev Wed Jun 25, 2014 8:19 am

rawemotions wrote:
harharmahadev wrote:Pulled out of NUGT and made a decent profit. I have a few munis, EPI and INXX. But most of it is in cash.

My intuition tells me that we are going to have a 10+% correction within the next month. I don't have any specific reason to believe it.

Let's say you are playing the outer table on roulette and betting on Red or Black. If you have 10 Reds in a row, you might be tempted to bet on Black; knowing fully well that the odds of Red or Black are 50/50 (ignoring the green for now). Basically, nature has a way of breaking the trend once people believe that it is fully established.

The market seems to be ignoring all the bad news and forging ahead. There hasn't been a 10+% correction for the longest time. Just as I can't find the reasons for the market to be hitting new highs every other day, I don't have a reason why it will hit new lows.
On NUGT, it is very good timing. Did you just know it would go down from 46 to 41 OR you just pulled out, when the trend reversed (basically breached near term support levels set previous day) ? From the timing of your post, it looks like you did the latter.

Since 17000 is a psychological number, everybody is looking at, will it reverse, only after it hits 17000 ?

It appears that you are predicting what is known in the market as "Secular Correction". Correction that happens due to the very nature of the market, rather than driven by any particular piece of bad news. But if that were to happen, any reason for it to be 10% ?

The NASDAQ (IXIC) near term support levels are around 8.36% lower compared to today's close. INX around 7.5% and DJIA around 5%.

OR
are you predicting that the Bull Market would stop and the support levels would be breached ?

I got very 'lucky' with NUGT this time. To be frank, I traded NUGT several times and made good money. In the last trade, I had cost averaged my position to $46. I sold at $45.25. I took a small hit on this trade, but made decent profits overall.

I have nothing to backup my prediction, other than the fact that the market hasn't seen a 10% correction for a very long time. It's long overdue.

S&P could go down to 1600. Again, I have nothing to backup my prediction. This is just my intuition.

by rawemotions Thu Jul 03, 2014 2:39 pm

rawemotions wrote:
harharmahadev wrote:Pulled out of NUGT and made a decent profit. I have a few munis, EPI and INXX. But most of it is in cash.

My intuition tells me that we are going to have a 10+% correction within the next month. I don't have any specific reason to believe it.

Let's say you are playing the outer table on roulette and betting on Red or Black. If you have 10 Reds in a row, you might be tempted to bet on Black; knowing fully well that the odds of Red or Black are 50/50 (ignoring the green for now). Basically, nature has a way of breaking the trend once people believe that it is fully established.

The market seems to be ignoring all the bad news and forging ahead. There hasn't been a 10+% correction for the longest time. Just as I can't find the reasons for the market to be hitting new highs every other day, I don't have a reason why it will hit new lows.
On NUGT, it is very good timing. Did you just know it would go down from 46 to 41 OR you just pulled out, when the trend reversed (basically breached near term support levels set previous day) ? From the timing of your post, it looks like you did the latter.

Since 17000 is a psychological number, everybody is looking at, will it reverse, only after it hits 17000 ?

It appears that you are predicting what is known in the market as "Secular Correction". Correction that happens due to the very nature of the market, rather than driven by any particular piece of bad news. But if that were to happen, any reason for it to be 10% ?

The NASDAQ (IXIC) near term support levels are around 8.36% lower compared to today's close. INX around 7.5% and DJIA around 5%.

OR
are you predicting that the Bull Market would stop and the support levels would be breached ?

As expected the Stock Market has hit 17000. Now it remains to be seen whether the stock market goes back to previous support which now is actually 11% lower for NASDAQ, 8.86% for S&P500 and 6.69% for DJIA OR it retreats only after going higher. Last minute action today indicates an uptrend. The question is how long will the uptrend continue. My guess is that it might go for a few days, and then the earnings cycle will bring it down to the levels commensurate with earnings rather than the inflated numbers right now.

BTW even NUGT retreated to 41, there is a strong push behind it that is propelling it back to 46/47 levels.
Is a long term Bull market going to start for Gold, with Inflation being caused by the expected minimum
wage increase in US ?

Any comments ?

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