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an interesting probability problem

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Post by MaxEntropy_Man Thu Nov 03, 2011 7:42 pm

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-5ESY-NOHla4/Tq9eMGZdH2I/AAAAAAAABQo/zoFPCfJ6kUk/s1600/multiple+choice+question.bmp
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Post by Guest Thu Nov 03, 2011 8:28 pm

13/36?

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Post by MaxEntropy_Man Thu Nov 03, 2011 8:54 pm

i don't know there is one right answer. i am still thinking about it. i found it on greg mankiw's blog.
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Post by Guest Thu Nov 03, 2011 9:09 pm

Just realized that I made a silly error - did 1/3 (1/2+1/3+1/4) instead of 1/3 (1/2+1/4+1/4)

The answer, if there is one, should could be 1/3 and not 13/36.

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Post by Jeremiah Mburuburu Sat Nov 05, 2011 1:14 am

zero.

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Post by MaxEntropy_Man Sat Nov 05, 2011 10:12 am

Jeremiah Mburuburu wrote:zero.

i think that's a very reasonable answer.
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Post by harharmahadev Sat Nov 05, 2011 11:41 am

Why is the obvious 25% not the answer?

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Post by Kris Sat Nov 05, 2011 1:41 pm

MaxEntropy_Man wrote:http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-5ESY-NOHla4/Tq9eMGZdH2I/AAAAAAAABQo/zoFPCfJ6kUk/s1600/multiple+choice+question.bmp

1/3

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Post by MaxEntropy_Man Sat Nov 05, 2011 2:13 pm

harharmahadev wrote:Why is the obvious 25% not the answer?

because there are two answers that are 25% and if you think both are right, then your odds increase to 50% and then you're back to 25% and on and on and on.
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Post by MaxEntropy_Man Sat Nov 05, 2011 2:13 pm

Kris wrote:
MaxEntropy_Man wrote:http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-5ESY-NOHla4/Tq9eMGZdH2I/AAAAAAAABQo/zoFPCfJ6kUk/s1600/multiple+choice+question.bmp

1/3

explain.
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Post by harharmahadev Sat Nov 05, 2011 3:56 pm

MaxEntropy_Man wrote:
harharmahadev wrote:Why is the obvious 25% not the answer?

because there are two answers that are 25% and if you think both are right, then your odds increase to 50% and then you're back to 25% and on and on and on.

Okay I see 50% but why am I back to 25%,,, maybe I'm thick.

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Post by MaxEntropy_Man Sat Nov 05, 2011 5:47 pm

harharmahadev wrote:
MaxEntropy_Man wrote:
harharmahadev wrote:Why is the obvious 25% not the answer?

because there are two answers that are 25% and if you think both are right, then your odds increase to 50% and then you're back to 25% and on and on and on.

Okay I see 50% but why am I back to 25%,,, maybe I'm thick.

because once you've concluded that the correct answer is 50%, you are down to one correct answer and hence back to 25% again. i think this is just a fun question. nowhere does it specify that your answer has to be one of the given choices. hence IMO the correct answer is zero.
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