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Predictions for 2012

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Predictions for 2012 Empty Predictions for 2012

Post by harharmahadev Tue Jan 03, 2012 2:38 pm

Here are my predictions for 2012

- As predicted last year, India will continue to face economic challenges. The INR will continue to decline and will end the year, in the best case scenarion, between Rs 80 - 90 against the USD. Under the worst case scenario, the country will face a Balance of Payment crisis and will undergo a significant devaluation (say Rs150+ against the USD). Undoubtedly, the downfall of India will become a cover story on Time, Economist, etc.

- The ramifications of currency devaluation will be reverberate across the country. Hyperinflation, bank runs, retail shutdowns, hoarding of goods, social unrest, etc will hit the country.

- Indian Sensex will initially collapse to say 12,000 and then rise and will end the year higher (from today). The gains in Sensex will not exceed inflation (in India).

- Gold, in INR terms, will rise and rise.

- Gold, in USD terms, will fall towards the initial months and will continue it's ascend. It will end the year at around $1600.

- Euro currency issues will continue to fester. One or more countries may opt out of the Euro.

- The US economy will stabilize.

- Unemployment will reduce to around 8-9%.

- S&P will end the year at around $1400

- USD will gain against most currencies, including gold.

- This will be a mega year for Mergers and Acquisitions. A lot of smaller companies will get bought out by mega-corps...specifically small banks will get acquired by big banks.

- Small caps (Russell 2000) will have very good gains and will be the best performing asset class

harharmahadev

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Post by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Tue Jan 03, 2012 2:58 pm

Although agree with the general downward predictions - given the elections are closing in - the INR will fall around 65 to 70. Debt/forex ration is still comfy. As long as the GoI has enough to cover the annual trade deficit, India will escape the worst case scenario.


Marathadi-Saamiyaar

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Post by harharmahadev Sun Jun 03, 2012 9:42 am

Shameless self-promotion!

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Post by Guest Sun Jun 03, 2012 9:59 am

Predictions for 2012 AuM3RLzCAAAiXks

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