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Predictions for 2012
by harharmahadev Tue Jan 03, 2012 2:38 pm
Here are my predictions for 2012
- As predicted last year, India will continue to face economic challenges. The INR will continue to decline and will end the year, in the best case scenarion, between Rs 80 - 90 against the USD. Under the worst case scenario, the country will face a Balance of Payment crisis and will undergo a significant devaluation (say Rs150+ against the USD). Undoubtedly, the downfall of India will become a cover story on Time, Economist, etc.
- The ramifications of currency devaluation will be reverberate across the country. Hyperinflation, bank runs, retail shutdowns, hoarding of goods, social unrest, etc will hit the country.
- Indian Sensex will initially collapse to say 12,000 and then rise and will end the year higher (from today). The gains in Sensex will not exceed inflation (in India).
- Gold, in INR terms, will rise and rise.
- Gold, in USD terms, will fall towards the initial months and will continue it's ascend. It will end the year at around $1600.
- Euro currency issues will continue to fester. One or more countries may opt out of the Euro.
- The US economy will stabilize.
- Unemployment will reduce to around 8-9%.
- S&P will end the year at around $1400
- USD will gain against most currencies, including gold.
- This will be a mega year for Mergers and Acquisitions. A lot of smaller companies will get bought out by mega-corps...specifically small banks will get acquired by big banks.
- Small caps (Russell 2000) will have very good gains and will be the best performing asset class
- As predicted last year, India will continue to face economic challenges. The INR will continue to decline and will end the year, in the best case scenarion, between Rs 80 - 90 against the USD. Under the worst case scenario, the country will face a Balance of Payment crisis and will undergo a significant devaluation (say Rs150+ against the USD). Undoubtedly, the downfall of India will become a cover story on Time, Economist, etc.
- The ramifications of currency devaluation will be reverberate across the country. Hyperinflation, bank runs, retail shutdowns, hoarding of goods, social unrest, etc will hit the country.
- Indian Sensex will initially collapse to say 12,000 and then rise and will end the year higher (from today). The gains in Sensex will not exceed inflation (in India).
- Gold, in INR terms, will rise and rise.
- Gold, in USD terms, will fall towards the initial months and will continue it's ascend. It will end the year at around $1600.
- Euro currency issues will continue to fester. One or more countries may opt out of the Euro.
- The US economy will stabilize.
- Unemployment will reduce to around 8-9%.
- S&P will end the year at around $1400
- USD will gain against most currencies, including gold.
- This will be a mega year for Mergers and Acquisitions. A lot of smaller companies will get bought out by mega-corps...specifically small banks will get acquired by big banks.
- Small caps (Russell 2000) will have very good gains and will be the best performing asset class
harharmahadev- Posts : 1155
Join date : 2011-04-29
Age : 51 -
Re: Predictions for 2012
by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Tue Jan 03, 2012 2:58 pm
Although agree with the general downward predictions - given the elections are closing in - the INR will fall around 65 to 70. Debt/forex ration is still comfy. As long as the GoI has enough to cover the annual trade deficit, India will escape the worst case scenario.
Marathadi-Saamiyaar- Posts : 17675
Join date : 2011-04-30
Age : 110
harharmahadev- Posts : 1155
Join date : 2011-04-29
Age : 51 -
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