Predictions for 2014

Here are my predictions for 2014. So pay attention.

For India, 2014 will be characterized by high inflation, high interest rates, declining rupee and lackluster stock market. Real estate will continue to rise, as Indian citizens and black market players pile on to India’s only known, time-tested, ‘safe haven’ asset class.

BJP will win the Indian national elections without a clear majority. Narendra Modi will become the Prime Minister of India. This will trigger a spike in the Indian stock market. After the initial surge, the stock market will fall. Overall, the Indian stock market will end higher.

The Rupee faces a very turbulent year. Raghuram Rajan will face huge challenges. On one end, he will force the government to stop monetizing runaway fiscal deficits. Indian government won’t have the wherewithal to cut down on welfare programs. So he will raise interest rates, but those measures will end up being counterproductive. Rising interest rates will raise the government’s borrowing costs rise; which further exacerbate the problem. The government will force him to cut interest rates, which will cause the rupee to fall and create runaway inflation. RBI will be in a tough spot. Eventually, RBI will pick the poison with the least pain. The result – INR will trade in the high 70s against the USD.

Oil prices will fall in USD terms. USD will continue to rise. Gold prices will be volatile, but will end the year higher. Gold mining companies will have a great year and probably be one of the best performing industries (in terms of stock market prices).

US and Japan will see higher inflation. US Fed will cut down on bond purchase program. It will signal raising interest rates. The pace at which the Fed will reduce its bond purchase program will be much slower than market expectations. This will create further rallies in the US stock market. US real estate will continue to rise. Statistically, employment will surge, but factually, there will be a minor improvement. Overall, volatility will be high (compared to 2013). US stock market will witness multiple 10+% weekly declines; followed by periodic surges.

Unlike the US economic boom from 2002-2007, China and India will not be the beneficiaries to this boom. Investors will hunt for new emerging markets. Iraq, Mexico and a few African countries will become favored investment destinations. US manufacturing base will expand. One of the biggest stories for the year will be US becoming an Oil exporting nation.

Social networking and new-age Tech stocks will decline by 40-50% (Facebook, Linkedin, Netflix, Twitter, etc.). Overall, US stock indices will end higher.

You are the Fox of Wall Street!

harharmahadev wrote:Here are my predictions for 2014. So pay attention.

For India, 2014 will be characterized by high inflation, high interest rates, declining rupee and lackluster stock market. Real estate will continue to rise, as Indian citizens and black market players pile on to India’s only known, time-tested, ‘safe haven’ asset class.

BJP will win the Indian national elections without a clear majority. Narendra Modi will become the Prime Minister of India. This will trigger a spike in the Indian stock market. After the initial surge, the stock market will fall. Overall, the Indian stock market will end higher.

The Rupee faces a very turbulent year. Raghuram Rajan will face huge challenges. On one end, he will force the government to stop monetizing runaway fiscal deficits. Indian government won’t have the wherewithal to cut down on welfare programs. So he will raise interest rates, but those measures will end up being counterproductive. Rising interest rates will raise the government’s borrowing costs rise; which further exacerbate the problem. The government will force him to cut interest rates, which will cause the rupee to fall and create runaway inflation. RBI will be in a tough spot. Eventually, RBI will pick the poison with the least pain. The result – INR will trade in the high 70s against the USD.

Oil prices will fall in USD terms. USD will continue to rise. Gold prices will be volatile, but will end the year higher. Gold mining companies will have a great year and probably be one of the best performing industries (in terms of stock market prices).

US and Japan will see higher inflation. US Fed will cut down on bond purchase program. It will signal raising interest rates. The pace at which the Fed will reduce its bond purchase program will be much slower than market expectations. This will create further rallies in the US stock market. US real estate will continue to rise. Statistically, employment will surge, but factually, there will be a minor improvement. Overall, volatility will be high (compared to 2013). US stock market will witness multiple 10+% weekly declines; followed by periodic surges.

Unlike the US economic boom from 2002-2007, China and India will not be the beneficiaries to this boom. Investors will hunt for new emerging markets. Iraq, Mexico and a few African countries will become favored investment destinations. US manufacturing base will expand. One of the biggest stories for the year will be US becoming an Oil exporting nation.

Social networking and new-age Tech stocks will decline by 40-50% (Facebook, Linkedin, Netflix, Twitter, etc.). Overall, US stock indices will end higher.

hmm

Yeah right. Spoken like a true Baba.

4 out of 10 right is "Grand success".

southindian wrote:Yeah right. Spoken like a true Baba.

4 out of 10 right is "Grand success".

what 4 out of 10? he was wrong on pretty much all counts. was partially right about oil prices collapsing but said gold will shoot higher in same prediction. bjp gets no clear majority..bwahaha. china and india stock markets will be lackluster..bwahaha again. goes to show you no one should be arrogant enough to predict the future (except uppili)

Propagandhi wrote:goes to show you no one should be arrogant enough to predict the future (except uppili)

Are all the females on this board well past the child-bearing stage? Ever since I registered on this forum, I have been hearing that Uppili dispenses sage advice on nursing babies to new mommies, but I am yet to witness such holy knowledge transfer in all these years. Here's hoping one of the females here will pop a baby in 2015 and seek Uppili's advice.

SomeProfile wrote:

Propagandhi wrote:goes to show you no one should be arrogant enough to predict the future (except uppili)

Are all the females on this board well past the child-bearing stage? Ever since I registered on this forum, I have been hearing that Uppili dispenses sage advice on nursing babies to new mommies, but I am yet to witness such holy knowledge transfer in all these years. Here's hoping one of the females here will pop a baby in 2015 and seek Uppili's advice.

99% all dried up, yessir. uppili cant ply his trade over here unless he's got some expertise on brittle bones & constipation/incontinenance issues

I think I have been too early on my predictions.  I conceded I was off on a few, but the surprises were on the positive side. 

I did predict Narendra Modi's victory, but didn't expect a landslide victory.  But I was delighted by that event.  Early in the year, I did 'feel' that he was going to have a majority, but I tempered my excitement.  I didn't want my emotions to get in the way of making solid predictions.  My prediction on the Indian stock market dynamics was spot on.

While I did predict oil prices falling, I didn't predict for it to collapse.  I'm just being honest, even though it may be detrimental to my image. 

Lower oil price is hugely beneficial for India. No more oil subsidies to worry about.  This plus Modi/Rajan's market friendly economic policies have kept the Rupee far higher than what I predicted.  I think this trend will continue through 2015.  This trend will be supported by continuing reforms in Indian policies and infrastructure.

I believe I was early on my calls for Gold and social media.  But it is what it is.  I will hold on to these predictions for 2015.

harharmahadev wrote:I think I have been too early on my predictions.  I conceded I was off on a few, but the surprises were on the positive side. 

I did predict Narendra Modi's victory, but didn't expect a landslide victory.  But I was delighted by that event.  Early in the year, I did 'feel' that he was going to have a majority, but I tempered my excitement.  I didn't want my emotions to get in the way of making solid predictions.  My prediction on the Indian stock market dynamics was spot on.

While I did predict oil prices falling, I didn't predict for it to collapse.  I'm just being honest, even though it may be detrimental to my image. 

Lower oil price is hugely beneficial for India. No more oil subsidies to worry about.  This plus Modi/Rajan's market friendly economic policies have kept the Rupee far higher than what I predicted.  I think this trend will continue through 2015.  This trend will be supported by continuing reforms in Indian policies and infrastructure.

I believe I was early on my calls for Gold and social media.  But it is what it is.  I will hold on to these predictions for 2015.

Welcome back, Fox of Wall Street!

Even so called economists make predictions that hardly pan out. So given that, I think HarHar has done a decent job. He stuck his neck out to make predictions knowing full well that he will be ridiculed later. So he deserves an A for effort alone.

SomeProfile wrote:

Propagandhi wrote:goes to show you no one should be arrogant enough to predict the future (except uppili)

Are all the females on this board well past the child-bearing stage? Ever since I registered on this forum, I have been hearing that Uppili dispenses sage advice on nursing babies to new mommies, but I am yet to witness such holy knowledge transfer in all these years. Here's hoping one of the females here will pop a baby in 2015 and seek Uppili's advice.

I still think Uppili's advice on nursing babies to new mommies for SuCH women will be good in 2015. All women here can use that advice for their daughters and DILs, and good luck to those moms and MILs here.

Ya, women of Such had the right things at the right age and so are comfortable about their stage in life now and aging gracefully. Some men here don't seem to have things happen to them at the right age and hence are resisting getting old and acting like peter pans. Grow up guys! You're all in your 40s too. And that's OLD!

Now this is depressing.

Let me take my meds before I add anything more....

southindian wrote:Now this is depressing.

Let me take my meds before I add anything more....

Meds+a reality check

Kinnera wrote:Ya, women of Such had the right things at the right age and so are comfortable about their stage in life now and aging gracefully. Some men here don't seem to have things happen to them at the right age and hence are resisting getting old and acting like peter pans. Grow up guys! You're all in your 40s too. And that's OLD!

Aw..Kinny, don't be like that. 40s is the new 30s. Not old at all. Men or women.

Kinnera wrote:Ya, women of Such had the right things at the right age and so are comfortable about their stage in life now and aging gracefully. Some men here don't seem to have things happen to them at the right age and hence are resisting getting old and acting like peter pans. Grow up guys! You're all in your 40s too. And that's OLD!

So, you are saying it's time for Uppili to buy a sports car and become a sugar daddy to the new female graduate intern in his office?

nevada wrote:Even so called economists make predictions that hardly pan out. So given that, I think HarHar has done a decent job. He stuck his neck out to make predictions knowing full well that he will be ridiculed later. So he deserves an A for effort alone.

+1

nevada wrote:Even so called economists make predictions that hardly pan out. So given that, I think HarHar has done a decent job. He stuck his neck out to make predictions knowing full well that he will be ridiculed later. So he deserves an A for effort alone.

that's what irks me abt such predictions. how is it any different than trying to predict weather or astrology where they tell you what's gonna happen to you on your 36th year based on time of birth? pure hokum all of it...we dont have to show our collective tits in appreciation just because the guessing is about macro economic events.

Merlot Daruwala wrote:

Kinnera wrote:Ya, women of Such had the right things at the right age and so are comfortable about their stage in life now and aging gracefully. Some men here don't seem to have things happen to them at the right age and hence are resisting getting old and acting like peter pans. Grow up guys! You're all in your 40s too. And that's OLD!

Aw..Kinny, don't be like that. 40s is the new 30s. Not old at all. Men or women.

Of course! I was doing a li'l reality check to the 40+ unkles here who are mentally stuck at 19.

SomeProfile wrote:

Kinnera wrote:Ya, women of Such had the right things at the right age and so are comfortable about their stage in life now and aging gracefully. Some men here don't seem to have things happen to them at the right age and hence are resisting getting old and acting like peter pans. Grow up guys! You're all in your 40s too. And that's OLD!

So, you are saying it's time for Uppili to buy a sports car and become a sugar daddy to the new female graduate intern in his office?

That wasn't for Uppili. It was for the desi unkuls here. 

btw, Uppili is actually a reverse case. He projects himself to be older than what he is and when the Suchers meet him expecting to meet an old man are surprised to see a younger looking and a handsome man.