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Romney described by fellow Republicans

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Post by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Wed Sep 26, 2012 10:48 am


........glowing comments about their candidate....

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Post by Idéfix Wed Sep 26, 2012 7:50 pm

It's crazy how the swing state polls are coming out these days. Obama is up by more in Florida, Ohio and Virgina than he is in New Hampshire. As of today, RCP averages show Obama up by more than 3% on average in all three of them. The typical margin of error in individual polls is in the 3-4% range. I have forgotten what I learned in statistics about using sample means from multiple distinct random samples of the same population, but intuitively, I suspect Obama's lead is clear of the margin of sampling error in all three states. The weird thing is that New Hampshire polls are averaging the same 1% margin as North Carolina polls -- where Obama is now ahead!

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Post by Idéfix Wed Sep 26, 2012 7:58 pm

I went back and looked at that New Hampshire number. That average is of three polls, all conducted prior to 9/18, the day when Romney's full 47% video was released. In contrast, the other four states I mentioned have had more polling done more recently.

Of course, the difference in the times when these polls are taken mean that my instinct to treat multiple polls in a state as multiple distinct random samples of the same population is wrong. Each poll is a snapshot in time of a variable that is changing, so the margin of sampling error may not be that much smaller than the margins on individual polls.
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