Maria slam - Obama prediction response

by truthbetold Sun Nov 11, 2012 6:16 pm

In the thread why Romney lost, Maria slammed my posts on 2012 presidential election as changing more often than Romney's flip flop.

Not in question: who I supported in this election.
However I did not join the bhajan samaj.

Yes. I changed predictions more than once. Reason is the polling data. I will show how the election opinion moved over the past 6 months.

April to June: bad time for Obama with a sinking us economy, Greek elections, European debt crisis and emerging market slowdown.
Mid June to August: Obama team got aggressive and redefined Romney. European crisis was punted down a few years. US economy and techs began a rebound. Obama began to show strength in electoral college(ec).
I disagreed with you and Obama camp on Romney's link to Bain capital after Utah Olympics as dishonest. I still hold that view.
August to September: Romney lost the story and convention glory went to dems and Clinton. Obama performed ok burnout great at convention. Ec stranglehold continued.
October 1st debate: Obama did not show up. Romney came back with a bang. Polls showed that by oct 10.
Oct 1 to oct 26: Romney rise.
Obama did what he could in d2 and d3. But polls did not reflect it till end of October.
Sandy: interrupted campaign. Helped president.
Nov3 to nov 6: final frantic days. I was surprised by Obama rise in fl, nc and va. Now the election was close to call. Ground game was the name.
After results: oh, co, fl, va, and nc were all close and could have gone either way based on predictive models . Less than 2 or 3 percent margins vindicate close statistical predictions. Given the pre and post numbers, I still call it a close election. I am an evidence based guy.

It is a great victory for Obama despite poor economy. His ground game is amazing. I wish him well. I hope he succeeds for the sake of a better America.

by Idéfix Sun Nov 11, 2012 8:10 pm

There were ups and downs in this campaign but I don't think Romney was ever ahead in the electoral college. The closest he came was late October just before Sandy.

by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Sun Nov 11, 2012 8:47 pm

truthbetold wrote:In the thread why Romney lost, Maria slammed my posts on 2012 presidential election as changing more often than Romney's flip flop.

Not in question: who I supported in this election.
However I did not join the bhajan samaj.

Yes. I changed predictions more than once. Reason is the polling data. I will show how the election opinion moved over the past 6 months.

April to June: bad time for Obama with a sinking us economy, Greek elections, European debt crisis and emerging market slowdown.
Mid June to August: Obama team got aggressive and redefined Romney. European crisis was punted down a few years. US economy and techs began a rebound. Obama began to show strength in electoral college(ec).
I disagreed with you and Obama camp on Romney's link to Bain capital after Utah Olympics as dishonest. I still hold that view.
August to September: Romney lost the story and convention glory went to dems and Clinton. Obama performed ok burnout great at convention. Ec stranglehold continued.
October 1st debate: Obama did not show up. Romney came back with a bang. Polls showed that by oct 10.
Oct 1 to oct 26: Romney rise.
Obama did what he could in d2 and d3. But polls did not reflect it till end of October.
Sandy: interrupted campaign. Helped president.
Nov3 to nov 6: final frantic days. I was surprised by Obama rise in fl, nc and va. Now the election was close to call. Ground game was the name.
After results: oh, co, fl, va, and nc were all close and could have gone either way based on predictive models . Less than 2 or 3 percent margins vindicate close statistical predictions. Given the pre and post numbers, I still call it a close election. I am an evidence based guy.

It is a great victory for Obama despite poor economy. His ground game is amazing. I wish him well. I hope he succeeds for the sake of a better America.

Only 2 people predicted Obama's victory right from the beginning

one of them used detailed, exhaustive data and statistical methods while the other used his Dhrishti and God-given instincts.

Everyone else went with their heart or the yo-yo data or the debate performance. As I heard over the radio last week, the campaigns and ads have no effect and they cancel out on both sides. most people go by what their own reasons, views and opinion on how they have been affected directly.

Hint: start observing and noticing for 2016.

by truthbetold Sun Nov 11, 2012 10:44 pm

Uppili I,
You are on a higher plain than Nate silver or other prognasti ators. Since you have a direct line to god and truth, I limited my analysis to mortals.
While we are on the topic, can you predict Gujarat election results? Too easy? Your real challenge is AP elections in 2014.

by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Mon Nov 12, 2012 12:33 am

truthbetold wrote:Uppili I,
You are on a higher plain than Nate silver or other prognasti ators. Since you have a direct line to god and truth, I limited my analysis to mortals.
While we are on the topic, can you predict Gujarat election results? Too easy? Your real challenge is AP elections in 2014.

Gujarat is Modi.

can you name 3 congress leaders in Gujarat?...

I rest my case.

Andhra:

Expect it to be a battle between Jagan Reddy and Chiranjeevi (he will be the torchbearer for Congress). 2 years is along time bcz CSR can launch an agitation on Telengana and affect the outcome within 2 weeks of the election. Depends on the kind of Telengana promises to be made by Congress, Jagan. TDP and the BJP (Jokers) will play small role. The ailing CBN did not groom anyone to take over the mantle, which is going to hurt.

by Maria S Mon Nov 12, 2012 8:40 am

TBT!

Ayyo Very Happy

! It was really like a gentle tap on your shoulder and saying "what was that, TBT?" than a slam! That one line about you "gently changing your predictions"..apparently made a gentle impact..huh!

Seriously, I always like your straight forward approach and crispy comments- always makes me smile! And you taking the time, elaborating and explaining..makes it seem more like a political "running" mini-commentary than predictions.

Anyways..am happily done with this election and God willing in four years, if am around and you post your running political commentaries in 2016..hope to read them!

by truthbetold Mon Nov 12, 2012 10:40 am

Maria,
I consider your opinions honest concealed in a gentle tone to take away the hurt. I endorse that approach even though my own approach is blunt and sometimes coercive. I did not take it badly but felt a need to explain my record.
I donot plan on wAiting another 4 years. I will post whenever possible.
I request you and others be honest and respond in kind as I intend to do the same.

by MaxEntropy_Man Mon Nov 12, 2012 10:45 am

for the last month before the elections, the polls had generally stabilized. i trusted nate silver because i had gone through his analysis method, whatever he had publicly disclosed that is (fairly striaghtforward), and found it to be rock solid. i never doubted his analysis. my explanation for why the media were saying that the polls are all over the place and too close to call is that calling an outright win for one candidate was not going to win them any eyeballs. it's more exciting when it is close. while the popular vote polls were close, they were consistently in obama's favor for the last one month; the electoral college was never close, but overwhelmingly in favor of obama. the media was being dishonest or simply delusional. take your pick.

by truthbetold Mon Nov 12, 2012 10:59 am

Max,
Help me understand the objective evidence Nate has to say 80 percent certainty of a Obama win when data showed the following before and after election.
Fl, nc, va, oh, and co were within polls margin of error. The final tally in all these states showed a difference of less than 1 to 3 percent, again with in margin of error. That means statistically you have a tie and no winner can be projected.
Being right on one instance is not proof. Also it is a binomial option. Any one could be correct half the time. If Nates method is sound, it should be transportable to a complex situation like multi polar elections in India.

by MaxEntropy_Man Mon Nov 12, 2012 11:08 am

each poll is like an experiment. you do one poll it could have a large error band, just like the outcome of a single experiment could have a large error band around the measured value of a single variable. but when you repeat the experiment multiple times, i.e. do multiple polls, the error decreases and the results of the averaged values, more believable. therefore he was using data from multiple polls and not a single poll. the ready availability of rich polling data made his task very easy.

so he was projecting, subject to a few other weighting factors he added like the employment numbers, the conditional probability of an obama win given a margin (positive or negative) in the popular vote. his calculations showed him that for romney to win it was not sufficient for him to simply win the popular vote by a small margin, say 0.5%. he had to win it by a more substantial margin, something like 2% to have a fighting chance to win the electoral college. he was never close to accomplishing that. the task for obama was much easier. even losing the popular vote by a small margin, say 0.5% was sufficient for him to get a greater than 50% odds of winning the electoral college.

and you are incorrect in saying that this was a one time deal for him. he called every state with the exception of indiana correctly using the same methods and the outcome of 35 senate races correctly in 2008. this time he got all but one of the house races correctly and all of the senate races, in addition to getting all of the states in the presidential election correctly. it is not dumb luck.

by Maria S Mon Nov 12, 2012 11:21 am

truthbetold wrote:Maria,
I consider your opinions honest concealed in a gentle tone to take away the hurt. I endorse that approach even though my own approach is blunt and sometimes coercive. I did not take it badly but felt a need to explain my record.
I donot plan on wAiting another 4 years. I will post whenever possible.
I request you and others be honest and respond in kind as I intend to do the same.

Appreciate your kind response TBT!

Sure, will do:)

*We may agree or disagree on anything and have different views..but, it's good to see that you recognize what is honest/real!

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Maria slam - Obama prediction response

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