The "15%" will decide Rajasthan Poll

by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Sat Nov 30, 2013 12:49 pm

....India is a democracy of the 15%, by the 15% and for the 15%.

When it becomes the "25%" there will be no need for any elections, considering the additional support of the 25% PiSSer group.

by rawemotions Sat Nov 30, 2013 1:04 pm

Actually BJP would need strong booth level management to counter Congress in Rajasthan given the congress freebies (free medicines etc..). In addition, Congress has managed to split opposition votes (their favorite tactic as seen in Delhi), where their former alliance partner which is headed by an individual who appeals on casteist lines is now contesting all seats. This splits the anti-incumbency votes of numerically strong Hindu Meena community, but retains their core constituency of Muslims. in addition one of the Gujjars leaders (another Casteist Individual) is now supporting the Congress Moreover CP Joshi , a strong organization man is taking care of Rajasthan elections. So BJP could find it tough to defeat congress.

So it is a surpise that even Congress mouthpieces are projecting strong win for BJP, knowing very well that it is not the case. I have a feeling here that the idea of Congress here is to lull BJP camp into complacency. After retaining power, they will be to tie the loss on Modi and say that BJP lost Rajasthan because of Modi, despite a strong anti-incumbency. BJP is making a mistake making tall claims on winning four states, with two of them being their own rule and trying to make this a precursor to general elections. State and Federal elections have different rules. Local factors can prevail in voters decisions for state elections. It will dent the surge in popularity of Modi, if Congress manages to win two states. Congress does not care about anything else , but to puncture Modi's surge in popularity. They do not want another leader with Pan Indian appeal taking on Congress.

by rawemotions Sat Nov 30, 2013 1:22 pm

Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote:

....India is a democracy of the 15%, by the 15% and for the 15%.

When it becomes the "25%" there will be no need for any elections, considering the additional support of the 25% PiSSer group.

When it becomes 25%, movements to separate everything will start, and democracy and secularism will be forgotten. Classic example, is asking for Separate Muslim police personnel/DSP in each police station etc.. Once that is obtained by taking the support of communal divisive parties like Congress/SP who conveniently forget the constitution (ironically in the name of secularism), the Political Islamic movement will be started, to slowly transform a region to majority Muslim areas. It Starts with building one Mosque and then take over one village at a time using Foreign Gulf money, settlement of Illegally infiltrating Muslim individuals from Non-secular countries, and harassment/ intimidation of Hindus and other non-Muslims to leave the region and sell their properties to Muslims. Eventually the aim is to get a Muslim State where Shariah can be included in government laws. We can see all these in North Kerala, West Bengal, J&K, Assam,UP and Muslim dominated pockets of TN & Hyderabad .

by truthbetold Sat Nov 30, 2013 2:06 pm

Raw ,
you scared chicken shit , how can modi win an all India election if he cannot won in bjp heartland? if you step outside of this sacred area, bjp has no place to call home.
Do not take offense at chicken shit but your excuses are just that. if you cannot win in this round bjp should be barred from contesting in 2014 for incompetence. they shouldbe tried for tall claims fraud. modi should be given a third degree treatment for breaching people's confidence. he should never be allowed outside gujarat .congress will win 300 seats in that case.
you understand?

by rawemotions Sat Nov 30, 2013 2:55 pm

You do not seem to understand how Assembly Indian elections are won.

The Assembly elections issues mostly tend to be local, and very few vote for national reasons. You can have a great orator in Modi who talks of National issues, but if you have bad booth management, wrong selection of candidates, and inability to mobilize communities in your favour (because of division of opposition votes), then you will still lose state elections.
Deciding candidates in state elections is tough, because the votes are strongly based on what clans/biradaris and Panchayats decide. Since these are assembly elections, 100 Modi's might come and go, but voters ultimately look at who their CM and local MLA candidate is. Rest all is tamasha and fun.

If BJP wins in MP it is a win for Chouhan,Rajnath and those who are in charge of the states for candidate selection , Modi's role is peripheral at best. because only a few of the votes would actually accrue because of his oratory power/rallies.

If Rajasthan Congress loses elections we cannot say that Rahul lost, because he came in for a few rallies. It will be Gehlot's and party presidents (Sonia's loss) and party campaign chief's loss, including those who select candidates (in this case CP Joshi and Gehlot).

If you look at difference between first and second the spread is just 3% of the votes. If a Kishori Lal Meena takes 10% of the votes, and he robs 7% from the anti-incumbency votes and 3% from the congress voters, BJP will still lose. That is what Yeddi did in Karnataka almost adding 40 seats for Congress tally. So doing candidate selection in multi-cornered fights is tough, when local issues pre-dominate.

People might vote for a Kishori Lal Meena for local elections because of it is about their MLA dealing with local issues, and the clan/Biradari feeling is higher there and they cannot face the community if a different clan gets all the votes. But the same folks might want to vote for BJP for Parliament elections because the focus is purely on national issues.

The focus for Modi is General elections. It is NOT modi's job to win to state elections. Please note he is not party president. State elections responsibility is the responsibility of party president, and state campaign chiefs or CM candidates and the individual candidates. They just call him because he is a good orator, and feel an extra 1 or 2% can tip the scales in some constituencies. But if improper candidate selection is the cause of 5% negative swing in many other constituencies, they still lose the elections. If you look at it statistically it is a nightmare.

Thus, it is a big mistake for Modi to jump into the mine-field of state elections. He cannot control the outcome or the factors that lead to the outcome. He should focus on rallies for national elections alone where the focus is on national elections. There is an upward trajectory in his popularity, and that momentum will get impeded un-necessarily because of factors that were in no way related to his campaigning. He is taking a big risk by doing so. I actually admire him for just taking this risk, and that too agreeing to step into the mine field of Delhi elections. He might falter, but he will learn his lesson and hopefully handle it better for the real war (the Lok Sabha elections). This is a battle where he is lending is face, but he will get tied to the losses for which he is in no way directly responsible.

Please note even if you win by one vote, it is still considered winning, irrespective of the fact that almost over half of the votes went against you. At the end of the day, assembly votes are won by slick booth level management and managing local factors.

by truthbetold Sat Nov 30, 2013 3:35 pm

Raw,
which state elections are free of caste politics, divisive local politics and disruptive forces? Strong leaders find ways to lead people above those considerations.
all politics is local. These elections are no exception. But modi got the best opportunity of his life to unite party and lead it to victory in bjp's strong holds.
Anything less than exceptional success would be considered a failure.
there is a strong correlation between winning recent state elections and winning subsequent parliament seats in those States.
If bjp loses this round it is not all modi's fault. But he wil bel blamed and rightly so
. His star will be dimmed. There are some escape hatches with some combinations of victory. But modi's star will shine brighter only if he wins an exceptional victory. Less than that it is all chicken shit.

by confuzzled dude Sat Nov 30, 2013 4:01 pm

truthbetold wrote:Raw,
which state elections are free of caste politics, divisive local politics and disruptive forces? Strong leaders find ways to lead people above those considerations.
all politics is local. These elections are no exception. But modi got the best opportunity of his life to unite party and lead it to victory in bjp's strong holds.
Anything less than exceptional success would be considered a failure.
there is a strong correlation between winning recent state elections and winning subsequent parliament seats in those States.
If bjp loses this round it is not all modi's fault. But he wil bel blamed and rightly so
. His star will be dimmed. There are some escape hatches with some combinations of victory. But modi's star will shine brighter only if he wins an exceptional victory. Less than that it is all chicken shit.

You don't understand. It's because of Muslims, it's because of Congress and PiSSERs, never due to our utter incompetence.

by rawemotions Sat Nov 30, 2013 4:07 pm

Since you talk about Muslims, please tell me whether it is acceptable for Muslims to ask for separate Muslim personnel in Police stations in UP ?

by rawemotions Sat Nov 30, 2013 4:19 pm

truthbetold wrote:Raw,
which state elections are free of caste politics, divisive local politics and disruptive forces? Strong leaders find ways to lead people above those considerations.
all politics is local. These elections are no exception. But modi got the best opportunity of his life to unite party and lead it to victory in bjp's strong holds.
Anything less than exceptional success would be considered a failure.
there is a strong correlation between winning recent state elections and winning subsequent parliament seats in those States.
If bjp loses this round it is not all modi's fault. But he wil bel blamed and rightly so
. His star will be dimmed. There are some escape hatches with some combinations of victory. But modi's star will shine brighter only if he wins an exceptional victory. Less than that it is all chicken shit.

Your replies are inconsistent. On the one hand you are agreeing to my argument if they lose it is unlikely to be Modi's fault. On the other hand, you are saying Modi can unite the party and lead it to victory in BJP's strong hold. That is incorrect. The reason BJP wins state elections are primarily the responsibility of the party president, CM, state in-charges and booth managers. I am saying whether BJP wins or loses it is wrong to attribute everything to Modi's popularity or the lack of it. You and the Congress controlled media can Blame Modi all it wants for any setbacks BJP might face in these state elections. I think the BJP also knows this. In a perverse way, it will only increase Modi's popularity. After all he is not known in these states as much was he was known in Gujarat. Now with all the media targeting him, he will be known to a wider audience. It is ok to lose a battle as long as you win the war.

by truthbetold Sat Nov 30, 2013 4:43 pm

Raw,
Your adulation for modi does not allow you to see reality. You are a staunch insiders who looks for reasons. In addition you are like those Indian cricket fans who will not predict Indian victory for fear of jinxing it.
but the ram singh, hariharan, bhavani or crores of Indians are looking for a hero who can overcome internal squabbles and external impediments to a better India.
Upa is in deep shit with all scandals. Economy is in a downshift mode. Onions are expensive. Elections are in bjp's strongholds.you say bjp cannot win.
Ram singh will not be thrilled with your excuses(you may think they are facts but who cares). Hariharan may not vote for Congress but he may not get out of his house for another also ran leader. Bhavani may jump ship.
people are looking for a strong figure who can deliver such as Indira, mgr or ntr . A not so strong performance in this round will take away modi's luster and puts him along with the also rans like mulayam.
.

by rawemotions Sat Nov 30, 2013 5:08 pm

Again your replies are going back and forth. You say the elections are fought on local issues, but now you say a,b & c are looking at UPA scandals and better India. I think you are confused by the English media's penchant to highlight national issues and leave out local ones., If you really care look into the vernacular newspapers. That is where the real stories are and the ground situation will become clear.

It is foolish to be swept in by a few articles in national newspapers and internet websites and start joining the chorus. Indian elections are notoriously difficult to predict. I would go by the ground level situation.I have exactly listed the factors that can influence the elections in Rajasthan, (please see my first post). Congress is trying to prop up another challenger to cut into the anti-incumbency. If you look at it, this is a tried and tested strategy of congress, right from the days of YSR Reddy's second term. In this case it is a potent one, since the margin between the two parties is just 3-4 percentage points. Unless I see how it is being counteracted by the BJP at the ground level, I do not want to get into prediction mode. For BJP to win it has to get 2% swing in its favor to get even with Congress and get 5-6% more to counter Meena's effect. The Meena's are strong in a 40-50 constituencies. About 10-20 are Muslim Meenas that are anyway pro congress. In the rest 30-40, the BJP has to get a positive swing of another 5-6% to counter the erosion of anti-incumbency votes to Kishori Lal Meena. That is a tall order.

For BJP to win back Rajasthan is tough. Retaining MP is also a challenge, because of a late surge for Scindia to counter Chouhan's popularity. They might lose Chattisgarh if they are not good on candidate selection. But if they can manage one of the first two by doing the right things, it can give some confidence because these are bigger states. If they lose all the three after hyping it so much, they will be demoralized. If that happens, the top leadership Jaitely etc.. fell into a trap set by the English Pro-Congress media. Congress will anyway claim a win, irrespective of what happens. These folks even claimed a win in Gujarat because their tally went above 50. So if they get a real win, you need not even ask, it is Rahul Rahul & Sonia all the way.

by truthbetold Sat Nov 30, 2013 6:08 pm

Raw,
More excuses. What is wrong with Congress fostering fake candidates and third party diversions? That was happening ever since India had elections( ever since elections were invented anywhere). I remember this happened in my college elections.
National scandals provide the backdrop and media talking points for bjp. Those aspects help rally middle class. Then local politics mobilize vast majority of people of all sections. These are not mutually exclusive. When leaders explain how local issues are tied to national scandals through misuse of scarce resources, people respond. That is modi's primary job.
it is also modi's job to ensure good candidate selection and keeping party unity. He is the head of election Comm. A disaster in 2013 will spell end of modi. Period.

by rawemotions Sun Dec 01, 2013 1:35 am

Truthbetold, on top of your inconsistent responses and your back and forth change in positions, you are also out of touch and wrong!

NM Modi is the PM candidate for Lok Sabha elections. The Campaign committee chief is Rajnath Singh.

I did not give any excuse on anything. I just said these assembly elections are NOT a cake walk as portrayed by the Pro-Congress English Media and needs lots of hard work from the prospective CM candidates, States election in charge and it also needs to be backed up by good candidate selection with deft booth management to win.

Let us leave it at that, since I am tired of arguing with you changing positions every alternate post. You are free to think what you want. A bad show in Lok Sabha elections will be bad for BJP. I do not agree about Assembly elections being a referendum on Modi, since BJP's success or failures will not be due to Modi's rallies. That is the truth. You also partially agreed when you said a loss will NOT be all due to Modi's fault. Infact it will be a mixed blessing as the BJP will realize that despite euphoric opinion polls. there is no substitute for booth level management. But nothing will prevent the media and Congress from spinning it the way it wants and blame it on Modi inching as they are, to take him down. If Congress tries the tactics of pinning it on Modi, to counter them, the BJP would have to spin any success ,as success of Modi. Let them do what they have been doing. Both would be wrong, given that his role in these elections is marginal compared to what the CM's/Campaign Committee chief and states in charges do.

Either way, the main outcome is that he would be well known in these states, and as I said this is what the BJP is banking on.

Any failure in these elections will not finish Modi, it just battle hardens him and the BJP. It exposes their weaknesses, for the war ahead in 2014 Lok Sabha elections and in that sense it is good for them to know these right away and it gives them enough time to fix any lacunae in election management. Congress is putting together a formidable statistical analysis cell for Lok Sabha elections, so BJP/NDA needs to be equally good if not better.

It may be demoralizing for BJP, but it would not be advisable for BJP to do something like replace him for 2014, just because they lost the assembly elections, in which he played only a marginal role.

by truthbetold Sun Dec 01, 2013 7:44 am

Raw,
even though you are pretending to be unaware you know the basics.
But let me start with basics and explain.
Three major issues to be discussed.
Why modi?
local politics
What is expected from 2013 state elections in Nov and Dec.
I will multiple posts to enable issue by issue discussion.
next post: why modi?

by truthbetold Sun Dec 01, 2013 7:55 am

Why modi?

First let me clarify the question of election Comm chairman(or whatever).
Modi was elected or appointed as chairman of the bjp national election Comm either late 2012 or April 2013. He was made responsible for all elections. He was running the show using that title while resolving internal squabbles about his pm candidacy. Few months ago when he was declared as pm to be, rajnath was given the charge of election Comm. But modi is the chief campaigner and he will continue to be the boss of all Comm. Rajnath is the executioner, modi is the Decided.

Why did bjp choose modi ahead of advani (who has a better name recognition), sushma (who is the parliament party leader), stun jaitly ( much smarter), and (rajnath

by truthbetold Sun Dec 01, 2013 8:24 am

Looks like my post was cutoff in the middle. Let me resume.
Rss leadership thought modi is a leader who can bring bjp leaders together, push his agenda more firmly, he has hero image in a section of population that could help draw new young cadre, and he is a staunch rss. He is also a rabble rouser.

Bjp and rss assessed that modi is among the top five politicians in name recognition( mms, advani, Sonia, modi and foisted prince rahul). Modi's got extensive name recognition from riots of 2002 and subsequent Congress bad mouthing. Not all of it good but rss considers it exploitable for elections.
so pushed modi as election Comm chairman and later as pm candidate.
Next post: why did they announce modi candidature in 2013?

by truthbetold Sun Dec 01, 2013 8:34 am

Why did bjp and rss hurried to announce modi as pm candidate in 2013?
Let me jump over stupid upa misdeeds that created a fertile ground for opposition.
Then Nov Dec elections were in States where bjp had organizational strength and enjoyed power and people consider it as major option for ruling the state. A victory in these favorable States will act as strong tail wind for 2014. Rss and bjp also expect modi to strategize and bring all factions together to win the elections.
The expectation is that he will match Sonia and outshine rahul.
Next local elections.

by truthbetold Sun Dec 01, 2013 9:20 am

Local elections:
we discussed this in some detail above.
to summarize:
Local problems, such as party unity, candidate selections, caste equations, third party diversions and most importantly policies of the party in the past 5 years, play a significant role in any state election. It is true of every state. You have to win in you backyard or strongholds overcoming these ever present problems. Otherwise fold the damnable party. These are what I can chicken shit excuses.
why is modi responsible for local election results?
When modi sought and got leadership mantle he inherited the party with all its goods and warts. He now owns the past sins and success of party local leaders. Like it or not. Modi wanted it. He got it. If the party does well, it will credit to the modi and if it loses his star will begin to dim.
While modi cannot rewrite past actions in different States he has the authority to influence manifesto, electioneering, candidate selection and strategy execution. He is also expected to bring his own so called charishma. Together he is expected to win. Win big. Not just media but by stock market and rss internal expectations.

by truthbetold Sun Dec 01, 2013 9:36 am

What is expected in 2013 state elections in Nov and Dec?
Modi and bjp project a massive victory. Rss expects the victory to create a momentum to overwhelm Congress and upa.
A victorious bjp will make upa divisions wider and could force some weaklinks ( jagan) to keep options open. Money flow may be affected. Media could soften anti bjp noise. Middle class fence sitters may join the war in the trenches.
A significant loss will show India the limitations of modi and rss. It will embolden Congress that it can it survive a rather bleak situation just based on bjp's incompetence. The so called saviour will be cut down in size.
Yes. Bjp is in a bind. It cannot change the loser modi midstream. It will limp along to 2014 with disaster written all over it.

In summary, modi has no choice but to win in this round to have a chance in 2014.

by rawemotions Sun Dec 01, 2013 10:52 am

rawemotions wrote:Truthbetold, on top of your inconsistent responses and your back and forth change in positions, you are also out of touch and wrong!

NM Modi is the PM candidate for Lok Sabha elections. The Campaign committee chief is Rajnath Singh.

I did not give any excuse on anything. I just said these assembly elections are NOT a cake walk as portrayed by the Pro-Congress English Media and needs lots of hard work from the prospective CM candidates, States election in charge and it also needs to be backed up by good candidate selection with deft booth management to win.

Let us leave it at that, since I am tired of arguing with you changing positions every alternate post. You are free to think what you want. A bad show in Lok Sabha elections will be bad for BJP. I do not agree about Assembly elections being a referendum on Modi, since BJP's success or failures will not be due to Modi's rallies. That is the truth. You also partially agreed when you said a loss will NOT be all due to Modi's fault. Infact it will be a mixed blessing as the BJP will realize that despite euphoric opinion polls. there is no substitute for booth level management. But nothing will prevent the media and Congress from spinning it the way it wants and blame it on Modi inching as they are, to take him down. If Congress tries the tactics of pinning it on Modi, to counter them, the BJP would have to spin any success ,as success of Modi. Let them do what they have been doing. Both would be wrong, given that his role in these elections is marginal compared to what the CM's/Campaign Committee chief and states in charges do.

Either way, the main outcome is that he would be well known in these states, and as I said this is what the BJP is banking on.

Any failure in these elections will not finish Modi, it just battle hardens him and the BJP. It exposes their weaknesses, for the war ahead in 2014 Lok Sabha elections and in that sense it is good for them to know these right away and it gives them enough time to fix any lacunae in election management. Congress is putting together a formidable statistical analysis cell for Lok Sabha elections, so BJP/NDA needs to be equally good if not better.

It may be demoralizing for BJP, but it would not be advisable for BJP to do something like replace him for 2014, just because they lost the assembly elections, in which he played only a marginal role.

Well it looks like the BJP's president also seems to agree
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/result-of-assembly-polls-not-a-referendum-on-upa-modi-rajnath-singh/437050-80-262.html

by truthbetold Sun Dec 01, 2013 3:31 pm

Raw,
quoting rajnath to support your argument is like kapil sibal singing praises of rahul Gandhi.
Again rajnath's argument is proof of chickenshit. You can't win so you find excuses. Let me assure you non bjp fence sitting voter( so called swing voter) will not be amused.

by confuzzled dude Sun Dec 01, 2013 7:41 pm

So... what have we decided, Is BJP going to come on top on either of these? If they can't it do it this time they might as well as go on eternal Astra err.. Political Sanyasam and drown NaMo in Arabian Sea Razz

by truthbetold Sun Dec 01, 2013 9:53 pm

We have to wait till Dec 8 or 9th. If bjp winsthere will be no end to how great modi
Is. If bjp loses they already spread enough excuses. Those excuses may be good for bjp insiders and rss cadres. But average Indian will consider a bjp loss as modi's failure. Rightly so in this case in my opinion.

by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Sun Dec 01, 2013 10:40 pm

confuzzled dude wrote:~~So... what have we decided, Is BJP going to come on top on either of these?~~ If they can't it do it this time ~~they might as well as go on eternal Astra err.. Political Sanyasam and~~ drown NaMo and the country in Arabian Sea

by rawemotions Mon Dec 02, 2013 3:42 am

Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote:
confuzzled dude wrote:~~So... what have we decided, Is BJP going to come on top on either of these?~~ If they can't it do it this time ~~they might as well as go on eternal Astra err.. Political Sanyasam and~~ drown NaMo and the country in Arabian Sea

Uppili, had a real laugh with your new quotation about women and elevators. This is real humour!

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