BJP alliance will win Tamilnadu

Probably the most surprising result of 2014 polls..

Ponniyin Selvan wrote:Probably the most surprising result of 2014 polls..

Hahaha....

yes...the BJP Alliance will win ONE seat - somewhere in the Southern districts.

Marathadi-Saamiyaar wrote:

Ponniyin Selvan wrote:Probably the most surprising result of 2014 polls..

Hahaha....

yes...the BJP Alliance will win ONE seat - somewhere in the Southern districts.

let us see who laughs on May 16.

Jayalalitha govt. has screwed up the Tamilnadu economy , growth rate has dipped to 4%, even today power cuts of upto 10 hours outside Chennai, just free mixies/grinders and cheap idlies cannot win votes. To run those devices one needs electricity.. And due to some jalra advisors , ADMK is standing without any support..

DMK alliance is still tainted with their earlier association with Congress.. 

BJP+DMDK+PMK+MDMK is a formidable combine that will reap the anti-incumbency of both the State and Central governments.

Rashmun and Diggy will cry if that happens. Diggy's calculations didn't work in AP.

CONmen are in trouble. That is why Chidambaram is quitting.

Ponniyin Selvan wrote:Probably the most surprising result of 2014 polls..

In 2009 elections did DMDK stand alone ? Did PMK stand alone ?
If yes, did you add their votes and compare that against the AIADMK/DMK votes.
Add 3% for BJP votes, throw in another 3-4% for Pro- Modi Votes , now please compare this percentage
against AIADMK assembly election results (translated to Lok Sabha)

If  you have done the analysis above then it is credible. If so could you enlighten us ? Then your predictions would make sense.

As of now I think they might get anywhere from 0 to 5 (mostly in North west, and may be some Chennai Constituencies). If a few Modi rallies happen, the number could go higher. It all depends on whether the Youths/Women vote for NDA.

If DMK is weakened, it is also possible that AIADMK Could sweep the elections in TN, because traditional DMK voters, could go for AIADMK, despite the NDA pre-poll alliance. It would be better for Venkiah to keep his Mouth shut as far as TN is concerned. He should rather be focusing on SA and Telegana and deliver seats for NDA from there.

rawemotions wrote:

Ponniyin Selvan wrote:Probably the most surprising result of 2014 polls..

In 2009 elections did DMDK stand alone ? Did PMK stand alone ?
If yes, did you add their votes and compare that against the AIADMK/DMK votes.
Add 3% for BJP votes, throw in another 3-4% for Pro- Modi Votes , now please compare this percentage
against AIADMK assembly election results (translated to Lok Sabha)

If  you have done the analysis above then it is credible. If so could you enlighten us ? Then your predictions would make sense.

As of now I think they might get anywhere from 0 to 5 (mostly in North west, and may be some Chennai Constituencies). If a few Modi rallies happen, the number could go higher. It all depends on whether the Youths/Women vote for NDA.

If DMK is weakened, it is also possible that AIADMK Could sweep the elections in TN, because traditional DMK voters, could go for AIADMK, despite the NDA pre-poll alliance. It would be better for Venkiah to keep his Mouth shut as far as TN is concerned. He should rather be focusing on SA and Telegana and deliver seats for NDA from there.

What was AAP's percentage in delhi before 2013 elections?. It jumped from 0 to 30%, right.. 

So far Tamilnadu jumped from devil to deep sea for the lack of credible alternatives. That is the change in this election.

When contesting alone DMDK garnered a max of 10%, PMK garnered 6%, add MDMK+BJP another 6%. Even though  in total it looks like 22% is not big, PMK is mostly a party restricted to northern districts and that 6% is actually due to getting 15-20% in 15 constituencies out of 40, likewise MDMK is mostly stronger in the southern districts. DMDK is somewhat a full state party where the percentage is around the 8-10% range. 

So there is a great chance that this alliance can win the elections if not sweep the polls due to the anti-incumbency for both ADMK and DMK.

Also, in every constituency there are around 2-3 lakh new young voters added in this election. DMK and ADMK does not catch the imagination of these new young educated voters unlike the marketing and media powers of either Modi or AAP.  

If there is a huge turnout, that will be in Modi's favor.

Ps
that is a bold prediction. Is it a wish or a serious prediction?
Aap 's Delhi performance has certain characteristics. It is mostly urban w cosmopolitan, and large percentage of middle class. That type of voter in an environment of disgust created by gangrape and anti corruption movement turned against Congress. At that time kejriwal looked like sensible person go lead.
While tn voters are fairly knowledgeable and involved in politics, tn waves have been mostly swinging between only known entity to another. For an outsider tn voter seems to personality driven.
This all past. Will tn support a new direction?
Modi's wave has to be as powerful as mgr or ntr wave to really to push this alliance to make it to the top.

truthbetold wrote:Ps
that is a bold prediction. Is it a wish or a serious prediction?
Aap 's Delhi performance has certain characteristics. It is mostly urban w cosmopolitan, and large percentage of middle class. That type of voter in an environment of disgust created by gangrape and anti corruption movement turned against Congress. At that time kejriwal looked like sensible person go lead.
While tn voters are fairly knowledgeable and involved in politics,  tn waves have been mostly swinging between only known entity to another. For an outsider tn voter seems to personality driven.
This all past. Will tn support a new direction?
Modi's wave has to be as powerful as mgr or ntr wave to really to push this alliance to make it to the top.

Actually AAP's contribution from Middle Class and a small segment of the Sikhs came to only 10-15%. What saw them through was block voting Muslims in 3/4th  of the constituencies they won and some segments of Urban Poor Hindus in rest of them.

Knowing this, they have decided to ride the Snake for LS and completely forgot the rest. They are selectively going after some Constituencies with substantial population of Muslims and cozying up to Political Islam, but on paper claiming that they do not support identity politics. So where ever Congress is strong, it perfectly fits the pattern where it would split Anti-Congress (Hindu) votes, thus helping Congress, which has become untouchable for urban poor and the aspiring Middle class. This can be seen in states like Karnataka, Maharashtra, Punjab, Haryana and UP (Congress won 21 from there in 2009). 

Where ever Congress is weak, they are hoping that Muslims will vote for them to take on BJP, because AAP's masquerade as anti-corrupt (which came off recently. but many may not know this) makes it more acceptable to Hindus than Congress (which has double triple-incumbency of Economic Mismanagement, Corruption and Communal, anti-constitional (Muslim appeasing) policies). Knowing well that AAP will only support Congress in post election scenario (hence the anti-Modi stance) , the Muslims will vote AAP in these constituencies. 

Thus AAP, possibly with even tacit support of Congress, hope to reach 25-60 seats. They might even get there, and could damage NDA's prospects in many constituencies in UP, Delhi, Karnataka, Maharashtra, Punjab. Infact as in Delhi, AAP could deny NDA victory in as many of 20-30 seats. So NDA needs to pull its socks up and work very very hard and convince the Poor of the negative role AAP is playing. At the end of day every vote to AAP in any state will ONLY help Congress and bring back the same economic mis-management. Advani's warning is correct.  So contrary to perceptions, I think this is  a very tough election for the NDA, with AAP playing the spoiler. In constituencies where Congress is strong and weak, they should go all out against AAP and inform the people that every vote to AAP, is a vote to bring back Congress. It is difficult to do, because Congress is the main national opponent.  NDA needs to have a coherent strategy to take on AAP and work very hard. It is difficult to do, because apart from the Pro-congress result and recent faux pas of AK, there is not much ammunition against AAP.  History has shown that during anti-incumbency, another claimant always damages the challenger. PRP in Andhra, Yeddi in Karnataka has shown us.

Congress having already decided to sit out , is hoping that AAP will deny NDA the majority it needs, and they can give outside support to a conglomerate of parties (BSP,AAP) etc.. and control them and pull the rug at a more convenient time,, when people forget Congress mis-management. in the process it does not mind ceding the seats where Congress is already weak to AAP.

truthbetold wrote:Ps
that is a bold prediction. Is it a wish or a serious prediction?
Aap 's Delhi performance has certain characteristics. It is mostly urban w cosmopolitan, and large percentage of middle class. That type of voter in an environment of disgust created by gangrape and anti corruption movement turned against Congress. At that time kejriwal looked like sensible person go lead.
While tn voters are fairly knowledgeable and involved in politics,  tn waves have been mostly swinging between only known entity to another. For an outsider tn voter seems to personality driven.
This all past. Will tn support a new direction?
Modi's wave has to be as powerful as mgr or ntr wave to really to push this alliance to make it to the top.

In TN, there has not been much of a pro-wave. It has always been a anti-DMK or anti-ADMK wave. This time it is possible that there could be an anti-DMK as well as anti-ADMK wave as there is a credible alternative esp. this is a Lok Sabha elections with Modi being projected as a strong PM candidate. Except 1996, every other election from the 1970s saw TN voting for an alliance that has projected a clear Prime Ministerial candidate. 

We can wait and see on May 16 to see if the predictions turn true or not.