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Exit polls

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smArtha
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Propagandhi711
confuzzled dude
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Post by confuzzled dude Mon May 12, 2014 10:07 am

Looks like they are all over the place but mostly favoring NDA:

India Today= NDA: 261-283; UPA: 110-120

Times Now= NDA: 249; UPA 148

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Post by Propagandhi711 Mon May 12, 2014 10:10 am

looks like you are progressing quite nicely in dealing with grief. what's your current spi...err opinion on the municipal and corporate election results in ap?

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Post by Marathadi-Saamiyaar Mon May 12, 2014 10:13 am

confuzzled dude wrote:Looks like they are all over the place but mostly favoring NDA:

India Today= NDA: 261-283; UPA: 110-120

Times Now= NDA: 249; UPA 148

BJP > 250 and NDA > 280 are the only numbers that can be stable for 5 years.

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Post by smArtha Mon May 12, 2014 10:14 am

confuzzled dude wrote:Looks like they are all over the place but mostly favoring NDA:

India Today= NDA: 261-283; UPA: 110-120

Times Now= NDA: 249; UPA 148

For sample sizes of about 1k-2k per state, and the margin of error that is possible with that, there is a great consistency in their predictions.

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Post by confuzzled dude Mon May 12, 2014 10:19 am

Propagandhi711 wrote:looks like you are progressing quite nicely in dealing with grief. what's your current spi...err opinion on the municipal and corporate election results in ap?
 
What grief? I was expecting NDA to win all along. As for A.P muncipal elections, YSRCP is still a new party (relatively) to have a reach to muncipal/ward levels so I wouldn't read too much into those results. However, one of the exit polls had 15-20 MP seats for TDP/BJP alliance.

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Post by b_A Mon May 12, 2014 10:19 am

Looks like the great hope for Rashmun , the champion of corruption and caste politics , the great Lallu, may not be able to rescue the dynasty.

http://ibnlive.in.com/news/postpoll-survey-modipowered-bjp-set-to-sweep-uttar-pradesh-bihar/471381-81.html

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Post by confuzzled dude Mon May 12, 2014 11:52 am

b_A wrote:Looks like the great hope for Rashmun , the champion of corruption and caste politics , the great Lallu, may not be able to rescue the dynasty.

http://ibnlive.in.com/news/postpoll-survey-modipowered-bjp-set-to-sweep-uttar-pradesh-bihar/471381-81.html
 
In UP, BJP gets 45-53! 40-seat swing, really?

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Post by rawemotions Mon May 12, 2014 7:30 pm

confuzzled dude wrote:Looks like they are all over the place but mostly favoring NDA:

India Today= NDA: 261-283; UPA: 110-120

Times Now= NDA: 249; UPA 148
I think we should wait for 16th. Some of the numbers are not believable and exit polls have not been known to be a reliable indicator of actual results, especially with voting blocks who wait till last moment to increase votes.

TimesNow indicates that Raj and MP have not produced good results for BJP. They have compensated it by boosting the totals of UP and Bihar to very high levels. If true, this indicates big problems for NDA to get to big numbers like 249 as predicted by Timesnow.

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Post by southindian Mon May 12, 2014 7:56 pm

rawemotions wrote:
confuzzled dude wrote:Looks like they are all over the place but mostly favoring NDA:

India Today= NDA: 261-283; UPA: 110-120

Times Now= NDA: 249; UPA 148
I think we should wait for 16th. Some of the numbers are not believable and exit polls have not been known to be a reliable indicator of actual results, especially with voting blocks who wait till last moment to increase votes.

TimesNow indicates that Raj and MP have not produced good results for BJP. They have compensated it by boosting the totals of UP and Bihar to very high levels. If true, this indicates big problems for NDA to get to big numbers like 249 as predicted by Timesnow.
Exactly why you don't see Rashmun around. He has been burnt many times, so he's holding back.
 
Post 15th, either he'll come out chest thumping, or will disappear from threads in anonymity.

I have a hunch that Akbar is going to be revived soon on this site after May 15th.
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Post by truthbetold Mon May 12, 2014 8:41 pm

raw

Your worry brigs back memories of state election 2013. Relax. Forecasting future is by definition fraught with risk. It is ok to be wrong sometimes.

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