The exit polls include data until 3 PM........

Vakavaka Pakapaka wrote:...... but 27% of the voting took place between 3 and 6 PM. Who will be voting in the afternoon and evening?  The middle class or the slum dwellers?  I think the middle class.

So, I think, Krazywala is celebrating prematurely. It ain't over until it is over.

Our extremely brilliant Sikular SuCh scholars should wait until the votes are all counted before celebrating.

Vakavaka Pakapaka wrote:...... but 27% of the voting took place between 3 and 6 PM. Who will be voting in the afternoon and evening?  The middle class or the slum dwellers?  I think the middle class.

So, I think, Krazywala is celebrating prematurely. It ain't over until it is over.

Our extremely brilliant Sikular SuCh scholars should wait until the votes are all counted before celebrating.

rawemotions wrote:

Vakavaka Pakapaka wrote:...... but 27% of the voting took place between 3 and 6 PM. Who will be voting in the afternoon and evening?  The middle class or the slum dwellers?  I think the middle class.

So, I think, Krazywala is celebrating prematurely. It ain't over until it is over.

Our extremely brilliant Sikular SuCh scholars should wait until the votes are all counted before celebrating.

I am not sure. 

Delhi is a tough wicket for BJP because of simple electoral arithmetic.


AAP is a tough contender in Delhi. For all the Kraziness of Kerji, AAP's vote share went up from Dec 2013 to May 2014. Being Lok Sabha some of the Monomaniac votes went to Congress.

This time, all Monomaniac votes went to AAP, Congress decided to strategically let AAP win, just to see BJP lose and test a blue print of pseudo secular unity (plan for Bihar / UP) etc.. The party is thinking of a grand alliance in 2019 where Congress will be one party and all pseudo secular parties will be part of the alliance, (united by their demand of anti-democratic and anti-national (if you go by history) concept of proportional representation or minorities + few Hindu sub-cultures thrown in, and folks will forget their corruption and misrule.

When you add AAP+Congress votes from 2013 or even May 2014, you can see AAP comes marginally ahead. BJP's vote share should increase to counter it. Un-authorized colonies getting  legal backing should have increased it. But they might have still voted for AAP.

Vegetable prices (onion and tomato) are the chief problems faced by voters in Delhi. 7 Months of Modi rule has still not brought down the prices. A positive change here could have brought in Swing voters to BJP. But that did not happen. So swing voters might go to AAP.

The margin of victory might come down, but only under one condition BJP could win. That is if the women voters overwhelmingly back Kiran. There is a small sympathy factor that Congress denied Kiran her due. Do  not know if BJP campaign material utilized this aspect.

Thus simple electoral arithmetic and increased vote share (1% who could be swing voters) could go against BJP. Because it is essentially a two cornered contest , with slender margins the actual 
victory margin of any party could be 2 to 15 seats.

Vakavaka Pakapaka wrote:Apparently, Chanakya's data included until 5 PM. So, looks like the early trend continued.

Krazywala, however, will have tough time implementing his electricity, water and 100 schools/year promises. These days, populism is not paying as many dividends as it used to in the past.

Vakavaka Pakapaka wrote:

rawemotions wrote:

Vakavaka Pakapaka wrote:...... but 27% of the voting took place between 3 and 6 PM. Who will be voting in the afternoon and evening?  The middle class or the slum dwellers?  I think the middle class.

So, I think, Krazywala is celebrating prematurely. It ain't over until it is over.

Our extremely brilliant Sikular SuCh scholars should wait until the votes are all counted before celebrating.

I am not sure. 

Delhi is a tough wicket for BJP because of simple electoral arithmetic.


AAP is a tough contender in Delhi. For all the Kraziness of Kerji, AAP's vote share went up from Dec 2013 to May 2014. Being Lok Sabha some of the Monomaniac votes went to Congress.

This time, all Monomaniac votes went to AAP, Congress decided to strategically let AAP win, just to see BJP lose and test a blue print of pseudo secular unity (plan for Bihar / UP) etc.. The party is thinking of a grand alliance in 2019 where Congress will be one party and all pseudo secular parties will be part of the alliance, (united by their demand of anti-democratic and anti-national (if you go by history) concept of proportional representation or minorities + few Hindu sub-cultures thrown in, and folks will forget their corruption and misrule.

When you add AAP+Congress votes from 2013 or even May 2014, you can see AAP comes marginally ahead. BJP's vote share should increase to counter it. Un-authorized colonies getting  legal backing should have increased it. But they might have still voted for AAP.

Vegetable prices (onion and tomato) are the chief problems faced by voters in Delhi. 7 Months of Modi rule has still not brought down the prices. A positive change here could have brought in Swing voters to BJP. But that did not happen. So swing voters might go to AAP.

The margin of victory might come down, but only under one condition BJP could win. That is if the women voters overwhelmingly back Kiran. There is a small sympathy factor that Congress denied Kiran her due. Do  not know if BJP campaign material utilized this aspect.

Thus simple electoral arithmetic and increased vote share (1% who could be swing voters) could go against BJP. Because it is essentially a two cornered contest , with slender margins the actual 
victory margin of any party could be 2 to 15 seats.

Great analysis. Thanks.

confuzzled dude wrote:
So.. is this the result we're expecting?!

rawemotions wrote:
His promises are 4-5 times Delhi budget. So what do you think he will do.
He will go around publicizing a few cases of corruption. 
He will create dharnas on statehood. Will implement a few promises and blame the centre for the rest.
On the whole lot of meat for the media, which anyway is interested to do his bidding.